Big Ten Predictions: Golden Gophers vs. Wolverines Total Pick

Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-3 SU, 10-2-1 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (6-7 SU, 4-8 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 4th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crisler Center, MI, Ann Arbor

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: MINNST +6.5/MICH -6.5

Total: 151.5

Money Line: Minnesota Golden Gophers +224/-285

Notable Injuries

Golden Gophers

• Jack Wilson (Questionable) Hip
• Braeden Carrington (Probable) Personal
• Erick Reader (Questionable) Undisclosed

Wolverines

• Jaelin Llewellyn (Questionable) Concussion
• Jace Howard (Out) Knee
• Harrison Hochberg (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

After playing 13 games, Minnesota currently holds a 10-3 record. In their previous ten road games, which includes last year, Minnesota went 1-9.

Minnesota comes in with an over/under record of 7-6-0 through 13 games, with their games averaging a combined 146.8 points per game so far. Over the course of the last five games, the Golden Gophers’ games have averaged 144 points per game, along with an over/under record of 3-2.

Minnesota enters the game with a solid ATS record of 10-2-1, sitting above .500. In their last ten games this season, Minnesota has been exceptional vs. the spread, going 5-0.

Michigan will be playing their 14th game of the season today and currently have a 6-7 overall record. In their previous ten home games, including last year, Michigan has a record of 4-6.

Looking at their over/under performance through 13 games, Michigan has an over/under record of 10-2-0, with their games averaging 162.3 points per game on average. When looking at the Wolverines’ last three games, their over/under record is 3-0, with their games averaging 172 points per game.

Michigan enters their game against Minnesota with a 4-8 ATS record. In their previous five games, they have gone 0-5 vs. the spread.

The Historicals

Although the Golden Gophers have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Michigan, as they averaged 70 points per game while allowing 67. Over the course of these games, they averaged 137 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Minnesota’s offense had a good outing, putting up 80 points against Maine. They achieved a 50.9% field goal percentage and went 11/19 from the free-throw line. Leading the team in scoring was Mike Mitchell Jr. with 18 points. Dawson Garcia also added 12 points for the Golden Gophers.

Minnesota’s defense has been playing well, ranking 66th nationally, with 66.3 points allowed per game. Minnesota’s three-point defense is currently 66th in the country at 5.8 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponents have hit 41.8% of their shots vs. Minnesota.

The Michigan offense is coming off a game where they scored 76 points against McNeese State. They posted a field goal percentage of 39.3% and connected on 13 threes. In terms of offense, the Wolverines have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, putting them 62nd in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 63rd in percentage and 39th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Michigan defense is giving up an average of 79.1 points per contest. Michigan’s three-point defense is currently 132nd in the country at 7.4 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponents have hit 45.0% of their shots vs. Michigan.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Minnesota has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 1-9 while averaging 64 points per game.
• In their last ten games at home, the Wolverines have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 73 points per game in these contests.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Golden Gophers have a straight-up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 2-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Wolverines have a straight-up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 4-6.

Crew’s Total Pick

This game is too tough to call on the spread, but based on each team’s shooting prowess, the total seems like the way to bet this game. Take the Over 151.5.