Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan State Spartans Total Prediction for Jan 18th

Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-5 SU, 12-4-1 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 18th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MINNST +11/MST -11

Total: 142

Money Line: Minnesota Golden Gophers +466/-684

Notable Injuries

Golden Gophers

• Jack Wilson (Out) Hip
• Elijah Hawkins (Questionable) Ankle
• Pharrel Payne (Questionable) Back
• Erick Reader (Out) Undisclosed

Spartans

• Davis Smith (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Minnesota comes into this game as an underdog, which is a role they have played six times this season, going 2-4. The Golden Gophers are 12-5 overall, but they have lost two straight games, and they are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games.

On the season, Minnesota has been much better at home, going 11-2 compared to 1-3 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +15.8, compared to -9.5 on the road.

Minnesota’s over/under record for the season sits at 8-9, and today’s over/under line of 142 is right in line with the average over/under line in their games this season (143.9). So far, eight of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 142. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 142 points.

Minnesota has been solid against the spread this season with a record of 12-4-1. On the road, the Golden Gophers are 2-2 vs. the spread this year and 4-6 in their last 10 road games. As the underdog, Minnesota has gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games in that role, including a mark of 3-3 this season.

Michigan State is 10-7 overall this season and 2-4 in Big Ten play. They have gone 8-3 in non-conference games compared to 2-4 in conference games. The Spartans are 10-4 at home this season and have won six straight games at the Breslin Center.

So far this season, Michigan State has been favored in 13 of their 17 games and has gone 9-4 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is +15.8 points per game, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at the Breslin Center.

Michigan State’s over/under record this season is 8-9, and the average scoring total in their games is 142.6. Today’s over/under line of 142 is very close to their season average OU line of 142.7. So far, 8 of their games have had an over/under line higher than 142 and 7 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 142.

Michigan State has been solid vs. the spread this season with a 10-7 ATS mark. At home, the Spartans are 9-5 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Michigan State is 7-3 ATS.

Analysis

In their recent game, the Golden Gophers’ offense concluded with 77 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 77.8 points per contest. In terms of offense, the Golden Gophers have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, putting them 59th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 236th in percentage and 151st in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Minnesota defense is giving up an average of 67.9 points per contest. So far, the Minnesota defense is giving up an average of 8.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.6 times per game (532nd).

In their most recent game, the Spartans’ offense tallied 73 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 77.1 points per game. Offensively, the Spartans have a season long field goal percentage of 47%, which is 60th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 110th in percentage and 228th in three-pointers made.

In the current season, the Michigan State defense has excelled, sitting 44th in the nation by allowing 65.5 points per game. In their most recent game, the Michigan State defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Rutgers knocked down 12 three-pointers on their way to 55 points.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 64 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Spartans have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 74 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Golden Gophers have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Spartans have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups, their, straight up record was 4-1.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Take the Under 142