Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Total Pick 1/30/24

Michigan Wolverines (7-13 SU, 5-14 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (12-8 SU, 11-9 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 30th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: MICH +11.5/MST -11.5

Total: 145.5

Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +501/-762

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed

Spartans

• Davis Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Michigan enters this game as 11.5-point underdogs, and they have gone 2-6 this season when labeled as the underdog. The Wolverines have an overall record of 7-13, and they have lost three straight games.

On the road, Michigan has gone 2-4 this season, and their average scoring margin is -3.7 points per game. Over their last 10 road games, the Wolverines have gone just 3-7.

This season, the over/under record for Michigan games is 13-6 and today’s line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (150.6). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 163 points and during their last five games, the average is 149 points. So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

Michigan’s ATS record this season is 5-14, including a mark of 2-4 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last three road games, the Wolverines are 0-3 ATS and they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as the underdog. Michigan’s record vs. the spread as the underdog this season is 2-6 and they are 4-6 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Michigan State has been dominant at home this season, going 11-4 with an average scoring margin of +15.4 points per game. They have won their last seven games at home, and their record over their last 10 games at home is 8-2. Overall, the Spartans are 12-8 this season, including a 4-5 mark in Big Ten play.

So far, Michigan State has been the favorite in 14 of their 20 games, going 10-4 in those contests. Their point differential at home is significantly better than on the road, as they have a -7.4 average scoring margin away from home.

This season, the over/under record for Michigan State sits at 10-10. So far, their games have averaged 141.7 points, which is similar to the average over/under line for their games of 141.9. Today’s line of 145.5 is higher than 12 of their game’s scoring averages. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

Michigan State has an ATS record of 11-9 this season, including a mark of 9-6 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Spartans are 6-4 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS record is 7-3 over their last 10 contests.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Wolverines’ offense tallied 78 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 78.7 points per game. Terrance Williams II led the scoring for the Wolverines, contributing 16 points. Additionally, Olivier Nkamhoua chipped in with 13 points.

Facing Michigan State, Michigan aims for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 79.2 points allowed per game (294th). In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Michigan’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.3% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 36.6% this season.

In their most recent game, the Michigan State offense put up just 66 points vs. the Wisconsin Badgers. Overall, they are now averaging 75.7 points per game which is 160th in the country. Leading the team in scoring is Tyson Walker, who is averaging 19.3 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, A.J Hoggard also maintains a PPG average of 11.6 heading into game.

At present, the Spartans’ defense is nationally ranked 49th, allowing 66.0 points per game. In their most recent game, the Michigan State defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Wisconsin knocked down 9 three-pointers on their way to 81 points.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Wolverines offense has averaged 74 points per game while allowing an average of 75. Michigan posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 6-4 ATS.
• Although Michigan State has a straight up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 67 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Wolverines have an ATS mark of just 0-3 in their last three games. Michigan posted a straight up mark of 0-3 in these matchups.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Spartans have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

I was surprised that the Badgers hung 81 against the Spartans’ defense, but I think that will have them making defense the primary focus tonight. The Wolverines rely too heavily on the three and combined with the expected pace I don’t expect them to light up the board. Maybe a 75-65 type game? Take the Under 145.5