Michigan vs. Maryland Pick & Predictions

Michigan Wolverines (6-9 SU, 4-10 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (9-6 SU, 4-11 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 11th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MICH +5.5/MARY -5.5

Total: 140

Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +200/-252

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• Jace Howard (Out) Knee
• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Dug McDaniel (Out) Suspension
• Harrison Hochberg (Questionable) Undisclosed

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Lower Body
• Chance Stephens (Out) Knee
• Braden Pierce (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Michigan enters this game as a 5.5-point underdog, and they are 2-3 as the underdog this season. They have lost four straight games, and their record is now 6-9 overall. In Big Ten play, the Wolverines are just 1-3.

On the road this season, Michigan is 2-2, and they are coming off a 79-73 loss to Penn State. Over their last ten road games, the Wolverines are 4-6, and their average scoring margin on the road is +4.2.

Michigan’s over/under record for the season is 10-4, and today’s line of 140 is lower than the average over/under line in their games of 150.6. So far, 13 of their games have had higher Over/Under lines than today’s line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2, and the average scoring total in those games is 152 points.

As the underdog this season, Michigan has an ATS record of 2-3. Over their last ten games as the underdog, the Wolverines have gone 6-4 vs. the spread. On the road, Michigan has an ATS mark of 2-2 this year, and over their last ten road games, the Wolverines are 7-3 vs. the spread.

The Maryland Terrapins are 9-6 this season, and they have lost two straight games. In Big Ten play, they are just 1-3, while they are 8-3 in non-conference games. At home, the Terrapins have been much better than on the road, going 8-2 compared to 1-4.

At home this season, Maryland is averaging 13.6 more points per game than their opponents. Over their last ten games at home, they are 8-2, and they are 4-1 in their last five.

So far this season, the over/under record for Maryland games is 4-11. The average scoring total in their games this year is 134.8 points, which is lower than the average over/under line of 135.9. Today’s over/under line of 140 is higher than the average scoring total in their last three games (124) and their last five games (128).

When looking at Maryland’s ATS record this season, they have struggled with a mark of 4-11. At home, they have gone 3-7 vs. the spread and are 0-3 in their last three home games. As the favorite, the Terps are 3-7 this season and have gone 1-2 in their last three games as the favorite.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Wolverines have averaged 77 points per game compared to 60 for Maryland. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Michigan. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 137 points per game.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Michigan offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Penn State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 50%, and they made eight threes. On the offensive front, the Wolverines have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, ranking 63rd nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 75th in terms of percentage and 49th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Wolverines’ defense is nationally ranked 286th, allowing 78.7 points per game. Against Penn State in their most recent game, the Michigan defense gave up a total of 79 points while allowing Penn State to hit 41% of their shots.

The Maryland offense is coming off a game in which they scored 62 points vs. Minnesota. Overall, their field goal percentage was 38% while connecting on four threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Jahmir Young, who comes into today’s matchup averaging 19.9. Julian Reese also heads into the game with a PPG average of 13.3.

The Terrapins’ defense is presently ranked 28th nationally, allowing an average of 63.7 points per contest. Maryland will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Minnesota to just 40% shooting in their most recent game.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Wolverines have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 74 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Maryland has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 57 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Wolverines have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Terrapins have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Maryland posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Rich Crew’s

Both of these teams have been a poor bet, with the Wolverines 5-10 against the spread and the Terps 4-11. So, typically, I’d look at the total in these types of games, but with the Bug McDaniel suspension and the lack of depth on Michigan at the guard position, I’m taking the logical bet and backing the home side. They’ve lost only one game at home, and that came against a pretty good Purdue team. Take the Terps -6.