Michigan State vs. Penn State Pick | CBB Predictions 2/14/24

Michigan State Spartans (15-9 SU, 14-10 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (12-12 SU, 12-12 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 14th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Bryce Jordan Center, PA, University Park

TV: BTN

Point Spread: MST -3.5/PENNST +3.5

Total: 144

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans -170/+138

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Steven Izzo (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Davis Smith (Out) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Nittany Lions

• Puff Johnson (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Demetrius Lilley (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Michigan State comes into this game with a 15-9 record and a 7-6 record in Big Ten play. They are 1-5 on the road compared to 14-4 at home, and they have lost two straight away from home.

Michigan State’s average scoring margin on the road is -6.7 compared to +14.8 at home. They have been favored in 18 of their 24 games, going 13-5 as the favorite.

Today’s over/under line of 144 is higher than the average over/under line in Michigan State’s games this season (141.5). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 133 points.

Michigan State’s ATS record this season is 14-10, and they are 11-7 vs. the spread when favored this year. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Spartans are 7-3 ATS. On the road, Michigan State’s ATS mark is 2-4 this season and they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Heading into today’s game, Penn State is 12-12 overall and 6-7 in Big Ten play. They have been a much better team at home this season, going 10-4 compared to their 2-8 record on the road. As an underdog, the Nittany Lions are 6-8 this season.

Most recently, Penn State lost to Northwestern by a score of 68-63. Over their last 10 games at home, the Nittany Lions have gone 6-4.

So far this season, the over/under record for Penn State games is 14-9-1. On the year, the average scoring total in their games is 149.2 points, which is 3.1 points higher than today’s line of 144. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, with an average scoring total of 151 points.

As the underdog this season, Penn State has a solid ATS record of 9-5. At home, the Nittany Lions are just 7-7 vs. the spread this year, but they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10 games as the home team. Over their last three games as the underdog, Penn State is a perfect 3-0 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Michigan State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 88 points vs. Illinois. Overall their field goal percentage was 52.7% while connecting on 5 threes. For the season, the Michigan State offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 47%. So far, they have hit 52% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 6.7 made three’s per contest.

So far this season, the Michigan State defense has been performing well, ranking 34th in the country at 65.6 points allowed per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Michigan State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.3% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 32.0% this season.

Most recently, the Penn State offense finished with just 63 points vs. Northwestern. For the game, they hit 6/19 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 43.8%. Leading the team in scoring was Nick Kern, who scored 18 points. Adrian Baldwin Jr also added 17 points for the Nittany Lions.

On the defensive side, Penn State is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 73.3 points per game. In their previous game vs. Northwestern, the Wildcats finished with a field goal percentage of 31% and a total of 68 points vs. Penn State.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Michigan State has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 65 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• The Nittany Lions are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Nittany Lions have a straight up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 7-3.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 8-2 straight up.

Crew’s ATS Pick

The Spartans have a 1-5 straight up record in road conference games going a bankroll crushing 1-4-1 against the spread. Their recent play suggests that they can improve on those numbers tongiht. MSU has just two losses in their past eight games and while they did lose two of three on the road over that stretch, one was against Wisc who has their number and the other against Minn where they shot a putrid 7 of 17 from the free throw line in a 59-56 loss. They completely destroyed Penn State in an earleir home meeting 92-61 with a 38-14 Assist/Steal advantage. Take Michigan State -3.5