Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview

Michigan State Spartans (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)

When: Friday, January 3rd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Value City Arena, OH, Columbus

TV: FOX

Point Spread: MST +1.5/OHIOST -1.5

Total: 149.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans +104/-125

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Buckeyes

• Micah Parrish (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Meechie Johnson Jr. (Out) Personal
• Taison Chatman (Out) Knee
• Austin Parks (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Michigan State improved to 11-2 on the season with an 80-62 win over Western Michigan on Monday. Playing at home, the Spartans were heavy favorites at -26.5 but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game ended up at 142, which was under the O/U line of 148.5.

Michigan State led 37-24 at halftime and scored 43 points in the 2nd half while allowing 38. Although they got the win, the Spartans didn’t dominate as much as expected, letting Western Michigan keep things closer than the spread suggested.

Ohio State improved to 9-4 on the season with a 103-83 win over Indiana State on Sunday. The Buckeyes, who were -18.5 favorites, covered the spread in the victory.

After leading 52-47 at halftime, Ohio State clamped down defensively in the 2nd half, holding the Sycamores to 36 points while scoring 51 of their own. The game’s total points of 186 exceeded the over/under line of 158.5.

Analysis

Michigan State put up 80 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field and 55.6% in effective field goal percentage. They hit 61.8% of their two-point attempts while connecting on just 30% from beyond the arc, going 6-for-20.

At the free-throw line, the Spartans were nearly perfect, hitting 20 of 22 attempts for 90.9%. They also dished out 20 assists, with Chansey Willis Jr. contributing six assists and 12 points, shooting 2-for-5 from three-point range.

Michigan State’s defense gave up 62 points, allowing the opposing team to shoot 50% from the field. They struggled to contain two-point shots, with the opponent hitting 61% of their attempts inside the arc.

From three-point range, the Spartans held the other team to 30% shooting, as they made just 6 of 20 attempts. Michigan State also sent them to the free-throw line 22 times, where they converted 20 free throws.

Ohio State’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 103 points with a field goal percentage of 55.7%. They were especially effective inside, hitting 67.5% of their two-point attempts, while their effective field goal percentage stood at 62.3%. From beyond the arc, the Buckeyes connected on 7 of 21 attempts, shooting 33.3% from three-point range.

Bruce Thornton led the way with 33 points, shooting 68.8% from the field and 57.1% from three-point range. Jaden Daughtry added 25 points in just 20 minutes, shooting 70% overall. Samage Teel contributed 19 points and five assists, hitting 3 of 5 from deep, while Ques Glover also dished out five assists to go along with his 15 points.

Ohio State’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 83 points on 55% shooting from the field. They had a tough time inside, where the opposing team shot 67% on two-point attempts, hitting 27 of 40.

From beyond the arc, Ohio State allowed seven threes on 21 attempts, a 33% shooting rate. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 41 times, where they made 28, shooting 68%. Ohio State gave up seven offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Michigan State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 76 points per game.
• Although Ohio State has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 65 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Spartans have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Michigan State posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Buckeyes have an ATS mark of just 8-2 in their last ten games. Ohio State posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Ohio State is just two games removed from knocking off Kentucky, and now they have a chance to add another big win to their resume as they host the Spartans. However, I think Michigan State is the better team here, and I expect them to come out of Columbus with the win. At +104, I like the Spartans on the money line.

Analysis

Michigan State put up 80 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field and 55.6% in effective field goal percentage. They hit 61.8% of their two-point attempts while connecting on just 30% from beyond the arc, going 6-for-20.

At the free-throw line, the Spartans were nearly perfect, hitting 20 of 22 attempts for 90.9%. They also dished out 20 assists, with Chansey Willis Jr. contributing six assists and 12 points, shooting 2-for-5 from three-point range.

Michigan State’s defense gave up 62 points, allowing the opposing team to shoot 50% from the field. They struggled to contain two-point shots, with the opponent hitting 61% of their attempts inside the arc.

From three-point range, the Spartans held the other team to 30% shooting, as they made just 6 of 20 attempts. Michigan State also sent them to the free-throw line 22 times, where they converted 20 free throws.

Ohio State’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 103 points with a field goal percentage of 55.7%. They were especially effective inside, hitting 67.5% of their two-point attempts, while their effective field goal percentage stood at 62.3%. From beyond the arc, the Buckeyes connected on 7 of 21 attempts, shooting 33.3% from three-point range.

Bruce Thornton led the way with 33 points, shooting 68.8% from the field and 57.1% from three-point range. Jaden Daughtry added 25 points in just 20 minutes, shooting 70% overall. Samage Teel contributed 19 points and five assists, hitting 3 of 5 from deep, while Ques Glover also dished out five assists to go along with his 15 points.

Ohio State’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 83 points on 55% shooting from the field. They had a tough time inside, where the opposing team shot 67% on two-point attempts, hitting 27 of 40.

From beyond the arc, Ohio State allowed seven threes on 21 attempts, a 33% shooting rate. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 41 times, where they made 28, shooting 68%. Ohio State gave up seven offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Michigan State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 76 points per game.
• Although Ohio State has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 65 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Spartans have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Michigan State posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Buckeyes have an ATS mark of just 8-2 in their last ten games. Ohio State posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Ohio State is just two games removed from knocking off Kentucky, and now they have a chance to add another big win to their resume as they host the Spartans. However, I think Michigan State is the better team here, and I expect them to come out of Columbus with the win. At +104, I like the Spartans on the money line.