Michigan State vs. Northwestern CBB Picks: Expert Predictions & Betting Analysis

Michigan State Spartans (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 12th, 12:00 PM (ET)

Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, IL, Evanston

TV: FOX

Point Spread: MST -2.5/NW +2.5

Total: 137.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans -154/+127

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Wildcats

Recent Form

Michigan State improved to 13-2 on the season with a dominant 88-54 win over Washington on Thursday. The Spartans were -14 favorites going into the game and covered the spread, though the total points of 142 fell just short of the 144.5 O/U line.

Michigan State set the tone early, leading 42-13 at halftime. They scored 46 points in the 2nd half but allowed 41, which is something they’ll likely look to tighten up moving forward.

Northwestern fell to 10-5 on the season after a 79-61 road loss to Purdue on Sunday. The Wildcats entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 140, just over the 138.5 O/U line.

Northwestern struggled early, trailing 41-18 at halftime, but showed some fight by scoring 43 points in the 2nd half while allowing 38.

Analysis

Michigan State’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 88 points with a field goal percentage of 52.5%. Their effective field goal percentage was 59%, thanks in part to their 62.5% shooting from two-point range. From beyond the arc, they hit 7 of 21 attempts, shooting 33.3%.

At the free-throw line, the Spartans were nearly perfect, hitting 17 of 18 shots for a 94.4% rate. They also dished out 24 assists, with Jeremy Fears Jr. contributing 10 of them. Jaden Akins led the team with 20 points, shooting 61.5% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range.

Even though Michigan State gave up 54 points, they struggled defensively, allowing the opponent to shoot 52% from the field. The Spartans had trouble containing shots inside, where the other team hit 62% of their two-point attempts, going 25/40.

From beyond the arc, Michigan State’s defense held the opponent to 33% shooting, with seven made threes on 21 attempts. The Spartans also sent the other team to the line 18 times, where they converted 17 free throws at a 94% rate. Michigan State gave up nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Northwestern’s offense struggled in their last game, scoring just 61 points with a field goal percentage of 38.3% and an effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. They shot 28% from beyond the arc, hitting 7 of 25 attempts, and went 8 for 12 from the free-throw line, shooting 66.7%.

Braden Smith led the way with 22 points, six rebounds, and seven assists, shooting 50% from the field and 37.5% from three. Angelo Ciaravino added 19 points in 21 minutes, connecting on 57.1% of his shots and 42.9% from deep.

Northwestern’s defense had a tough outing, giving up 79 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 50% from the field. They struggled to contain inside scoring, with the other team hitting 57% of their two-point attempts (20/35).

From beyond the arc, Northwestern allowed eight threes on 20 attempts, a 40% shooting rate. They also sent the other team to the line 18 times, where they converted 15 free throws (83%). Northwestern gave up nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 8-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 74 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Northwestern has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Wildcats have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-4.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Spartans have a strong straight-up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Northwestern is coming off being blown out by Purdue one week ago, and even though they are at home, I think they are going to be overmatched by this Michigan State squad. Look for the Spartans to take control early and coast to an easy win. Getting Michigan State at -2.5 is a great value, so I’m taking them to cover.