Michigan State vs. Duke Prediction ATS

Michigan State Spartans (23-12 SU, 19-16-0 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (29-6 SU, 17-16-2 ATS)
When: Sunday March 20 2022, 5:15 PM PM (ET)
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena

Point Spread: Michigan State +6.5/Duke -6.5 (MyBookie)
Total: 144
Money Line: Spartans +220/Duke -276

Key Injuries

Michigan State Michigan St has no reported injuries at this time.

Duke Duke has no reported injuries at this time.

Recent Form

The Michigan State Spartans come into this matchup with an overall record of 23-12. On the season, the Spartans have performed well in their 12 non-conference games, posting a record of 10-2. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Michigan State has played well on neutral courts. Through 9 games, the Spartans are 6-3. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 4-1.

The Duke Blue Devils get set to host the Spartans with an overall record of 29-6. On the season, the Blue Devils have performed well in their 12 non-conference games, posting a record of 11-1. In addition to their strong non-conference record, Duke have a good record at neutral sites. Through 6 games, the Blue Devils are 5-1. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 3-2.

For the season, the Michigan State Spartans are averaging 72.1 points per game, good for a rank of 116th in the NCAA. On the defensive end of the floor, the team is giving up 68.6 points per contest. On the other side, the Duke Blue Devils are the 6th ranked scoring offense, averaging 80.1 points per game, while allowing 67.0

Efficiency Outlook

Duke enters this matchup vs Michigan State, having played 34 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 28-6. Through 35 games, the Blue Devils are averaging 80.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 73.0 for the Blue Devils. In these situations, Duke has an average scoring margin of 13.0 points. On the other side, the Spartans are 2-4 as the inferior team on both ends of the court. In these 6 instances, they hold an average scoring margin of -5.0.

For the year, the Spartans are well below the NCAA average in percentage of points from made three-point shots, sitting at just 29.8%. On the other side, the Blue Devils have been a very balanced scoring unit, with 30.7% of their scoring coming from downtown.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Michigan State Spartans got hot at the perfect time and I believe they can win this game straight up. They’re playing better defense and had a better strength of schedule this season. Bet MSU with confidence and consider putting 10% of your bet on the money line!