Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Expert Pick

Michigan State Spartans (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (15-4 SU, 10-9 ATS)

When: Friday, January 26th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kohl Center, WI, Madison

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MST +3/WISC -3

Total: 137.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans +125/-152

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Davis Smith (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Badgers

• Kamari McGee (Out) Foot
• Gus Yalden (Out) Personal

Recent Form

Michigan State enters this game as the underdog, a role they have gone 2-3 in this season. They have gone 12-7 overall and 4-4 in Big Ten games. On the road, the Spartans are just 1-3 compared to 11-4 at home.

Over their last 10 road games, Michigan State has gone 4-6, and they are coming off a 61-59 win over Maryland. So far this season, they have been the underdog in five of their 19 games.

Today’s over/under line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Michigan State’s games this year (142.2). So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 130 points.

Michigan State has an 11-8 record against the spread this season and they are 3-2 vs. the spread as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Spartans have gone 5-5 vs. the spread.

Wisconsin enters this game as the favorite, a role they have thrived in this season, going 11-2. Overall, the Badgers are 15-4, including a 7-1 mark in Big Ten play. At home, Wisconsin is 12-1, and they have won their last 11 games at the Kohl Center.

In their last game, the Badgers defeated Minnesota 61-59. For the season, Wisconsin has a scoring margin of +14.1 points per game at home, compared to -2.7 on the road.

So far this season, the over/under record for Wisconsin games is 10-8-1. Today’s over/under line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (137.6) and there have been more games (10) with higher point totals than today’s OU line than games (9) with less points. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 153.

Wisconsin’s ATS record this season is 10-9, including an 8-5 mark at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Badgers are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Michigan State offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 61 points versus Maryland. During the game, they attempted 16 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 42%. In terms of three-point shooting, the Spartans offense has been good from outside, hitting 36% of their three-pointers on an average of 18.9 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 47%.

So far, the Spartans’ defense is ranked 35th in the country at 65.2 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Michigan State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.8% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.2% this season.

In their most recent game, the Wisconsin offense concluded with only 61 points against Minnesota. Throughout the game, they made 7/17 three-point attempts and had a field goal percentage of 42.6%. In terms of offense, the Badgers have a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, putting them 66th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 99th in percentage and 242nd in three-pointers made.

So far, the Badgers’ defense is ranked 63rd in the country at 66.9 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Minnesota, the Golden Gophers finished with a field goal percentage of 37% and a total of 59 points vs. Wisconsin.

Betting Trends

• Although Michigan State has a straight up record of 1-4 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 73 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Wisconsin has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• Michigan State has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
• In their last three contests as the favorite, Wisconsin has a poor record vs the spread going 0-3. But, they still put together a straight up mark of 2-1.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Many bettors are playing the Badgers in this spot basing it on them being at home and their easy 70-57 win early in the season at Michigan State. I’m going the other way. The Spartans have won their last three visits to the Kohl Center. They’ve been playing excellent defense in recent games holding their last three opponents to 66 or fewer points and I think they can hold the Badgers to that number or lower tonight. In the previous meeting the Michigan State had a rough game from three-point land sinking just 6 of 19 shots. That’s not typical for their offense or Wisconsin’s defense (ranked 321 in 3P %). Take Michigan State +3.5.