Michigan State Spartans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Pick for Jan 11

Michigan State Spartans (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (11-3 SU, 8-4-2 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 11th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MST +3/ILL -3

Total: 149.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans +146/-180

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Out) Foot

Fighting Illini

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Suspension
• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Niccolo Moretti (Out) Leg
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Recent Form

Michigan State is coming off an 88-74 loss to Northwestern and has gone just 3-7 in its last ten road games. The Spartans are 0-3 on the road this season, compared to 9-4 at home.

Overall, Michigan State is 9-6, including a 1-3 mark in Big Ten play. As the underdog, the Spartans are 1-2 this season, compared to 8-4 when favored.

Michigan State’s over/under record this season sits at 8-7, and the average point total in their games is 143.9. Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (142.7). So far, 13 of their games have had lower point totals than 149.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 158 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 3-0.

Michigan State’s ATS record this season is 8-7, and they are 1-2 vs. the spread as the underdog. Over the last ten games as the underdog, the Spartans have gone 3-7 ATS.

Illinois enters this game as a 4-point favorite, and they have been excellent at home this season, going 9-1. They have won their last seven games at home, and their average margin of victory at home is +20.4 points per game. On the season, Illinois is 11-3, and they are 2-1 in Big Ten play.

Recently, Illinois has been even better at home, as they have gone 9-1 in their last ten games. In their most recent game, they lost to Purdue by a score of 83-78. On the year, Illinois has been favored in 10 of their games, and they have gone 9-1 in those contests.

Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is slightly higher than the average over/under line in Illinois’ games this season (146.9). So far, the over/under record in their games is 8-6. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 165 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 7-3.

As the favorite this season, Illinois has an ATS record of 5-4-1. At home, their ATS mark sits at 5-4-1 as well. Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini have gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Spartans and Fighting Illini have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -1 point per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Illinois. Michigan State and Illinois averaged a combined 139 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Michigan State offense tallied 74 points in a matchup against Northwestern. Their field goal percentage for the game was 48.1%, and they made 9 threes. One area that the Michigan State offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 172nd in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 48%.

So far this season, the Michigan State defense has been performing well, ranking 59th in the country at 65.9 points allowed per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Michigan State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 29.9% this season.

In their latest game, Illinois offense put up 78 points against Purdue. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 42.6% and made eight threes. In terms of offense, the Fighting Illini have a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, putting them 64th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 122nd in percentage and 61st in three-pointers made.

This season, the Illinois defense has been impressive, holding the 76th position in the country while permitting an average of 66.8 points per contest. Illinois’ three-point defense is currently 83rd in the country at 6.4 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponents have hit 38.6% of their shots vs. Illinois.

Betting Trends

• Across the Spartans’ last ten road games, the team averaged 74 points per game while allowing 76. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 3-7 while going 3-7 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Fighting Illini have a straight-up record of 2-8 while going 6-3-1 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 75 points per game in these contests.
• The last three games that Michigan State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-0-1 in these scenarios.

Rich Crew’s O/U Prediciton

We have two of the better-ranked teams for defensive efficiency tipping off Champaign tonight, with Michigan State ranked 35th and Illinois 18th. There is an old adage that defense travels, but that hasn’t been the case for the Spartans who have allowed 88 to NW and 77 to NEB. Illinois has been lights out shooting the ball in recent games and has the potential to put up into the 80s in any game, so we wouldn’t need a ton from Michigan State to get this over. That said, this line is going the other way, and I can see the Spartans stepping it up big time defensively tonight. Take the Under 149.