Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers Total Pick

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (15-7 SU, 12-8-2 ATS) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (17-5 SU, 12-9-1 ATS)

When: Monday, February 5th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: John Paul Jones Arena, VA, Charlottesville

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MIA +5.5/VIR -5.5

Total: 132.5

Money Line: Miami (FL) Hurricanes +193/-244

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Hurricanes

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As the Miami Hurricanes prepare to take on Virginia, they will be looking to improve their road record, which currently sits at 2-5. Miami’s average scoring margin on the road is -6.6, compared to +15.7 at home. The Hurricanes have won two straight games at home.

So far this season, Miami has been the underdog in six games, going 2-4 in those contests. They are 13-3 when favored. In their last game, the Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech by a score of 82-74.

Miami (FL) enters today’s game with an over/under record of 11-11 this season. So far, the average scoring total in their games is 153 points, which is slightly higher than today’s line of 132.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 1-2.

As the underdog this season, Miami (FL) has an ATS record of 3-2-1. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-3-1, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 6-3-1 vs. the spread.

Virginia enters this game as the favorite, as they have been in 17 of their 22 games this season. They are 15-2 in those games, including a perfect 14-0 at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +17.4 compared to -9.6 on the road.

The Cavaliers have won six straight games to improve their record to 17-5. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone a perfect 10-0. Most recently, they defeated Clemson 66-65.

So far this season, the over/under record for Virginia games is 10-12. Today’s over/under line of 132.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season (126.7). Over their last three games, their over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 122 points.

At home this season, Virginia’s ATS record is 9-4-1 and they are 6-3-1 vs. the spread as the favorite over their last 10 games. Overall, the Cavaliers are 12-9-1 ATS this year.

Analysis

The Miami (FL) offense is coming off a game where they scored 82 points against Virginia Tech. They posted a field goal percentage of 45.3% and connected on 7 threes. In terms of three-point shooting, the Hurricanes offense has been good from outside, hitting 38% of their three-pointers on an average of 23.9 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 48%.

Currently, the Hurricanes’ defense holds the 178th rank in the nation, allowing 72.2 points per game. Against Virginia Tech in their most recent game, the Miami (FL) defense gave up a total of 74 points while allowing Virginia Tech to hit 45% of their shots.

Most recently, the Virginia offense finished with just 66 points vs. Clemson. For the game, they hit 5/15 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 44.1%. Currently leading the team in scoring is Reece Beekman who comes into today’s matchup averaging 13.3. Isaac McKneely also heads into the game with a PPG average of 11.7.

Virginia’s defense has been playing well, ranking 2nd nationally, with 57.8 points allowed per game. So far, the Virginia defense is giving up an average of 7.9 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 8.2 times per game (352nd).

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Miami (FL) has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 70 points per game.
• Across their last three home contests, Virginia has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 70 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Miami (FL) has an ATS mark of 3-1-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
• The Cavaliers have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread.

Rich’s Total Pick

I’m a little surprised at the number they hung on the total, so maybe I’m missing something. The Cavs play really good defense at home allowing only the Orange (62) to exceed 60 points and that included nine points in the last 1.40 when Virginia were up by 26 points. Take the Under 132.5