Memphis vs. UConn Betting Preview: Total Line Play | Nov 25/24

Memphis Tigers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

When: Monday, November 25th, 2:30 PM (ET)

Where: Lahaina Civic Center, HI, Maui

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: MPHS +9/UCONN -9

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Memphis Tigers +322/-417

Notable Injuries

Tigers

Huskies

Recent Form

Memphis picked up a 68-64 win over San Francisco on Thursday, November 21st. The Tigers, who were +2 point underdogs going into the game, not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread. The game’s total points ended at 132, falling short of the 154 O/U line.

Memphis turned things around after trailing 31-22 at halftime. They scored 46 points in the 2nd half while holding the Dons to 33 points, showcasing their ability to adjust and execute after the break.

Connecticut Huskies Recent Game/Games

Connecticut cruised to an 81-46 win over East Texas A&M on Tuesday, November 19th. The Huskies were heavy favorites at -37.5 but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 127 fell short of the 147.5 O/U line.

UConn led 42-20 at halftime and continued to control the game, outscoring the Lions 39-26 in the second half.

Analysis

Memphis struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 36.5% from the field and 36.4% on two-point attempts. They connected on 7 of 19 three-pointers, hitting 36.8% from beyond the arc, and finished with an effective field goal percentage of 42.3%.

Malik Thomas led the Tigers with 25 points despite shooting 31.2% overall and 25% from three. Dain Dainja contributed 18 points on 60% shooting, while PJ Haggerty added 13 points, hitting 2 of 3 from deep. Memphis also grabbed 12 offensive rebounds and made 23 of 31 free throws, shooting 74.2% from the line.

Memphis put on a defensive clinic, holding their opponent to just 64 points on 32% shooting from the field. They were particularly effective at defending the three-point line, where they limited their opponent to just 6 made threes on 28 attempts, a 21% success rate.

Inside the arc, Memphis allowed 14 two-point field goals on 33 attempts, with their opponent shooting 42%. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 27 times, where they made 18 free throws, shooting 66%.

Connecticut’s offense was clicking in their last game, scoring 81 points on 54.2% shooting from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 61%, thanks in large part to their 71.4% shooting on two-point attempts (25/35), though they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 29.2% (7/24) of their threes.

The Huskies also connected on 71.4% of their free throws (10/14) and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds. They dished out 18 assists, with Camerin James leading the way with 18 points in 22 minutes, while Solo Ball added 12 points, shooting 83.3% from the field and 66.7% from three-point range.

Even with the Huskies allowing 46 points, they struggled defensively, giving up a 54% shooting performance from the field. Connecticut allowed 32 made field goals on 59 attempts.

Inside the arc, the Huskies were especially vulnerable, as the opposing team shot 71% on two-point attempts, going 25/35.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Memphis has averaged 77 points per game while allowing 76. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Connecticut has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• The last ten games that Memphis was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Huskies have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Crew’s Pick Analysis

UConn’s elite defense, allowing just 51.0 PPG (#3 nationally) and holding opponents to 32.3% shooting (#2), sets the tone for a low-scoring affair. Memphis struggles offensively, averaging 26.5 FGM (#149) and shooting a poor 48.3% inside the arc (#233). UConn’s top-ranked shot-blocking (10.8 per game) will disrupt Memphis’s interior game, while their 20.2% forced turnover rate (#25) further limits possessions.

Expect a grinding pace, with Memphis averaging just 31.8 first-half points (#261) against UConn’s defense allowing only 23.5 (#3). Combined metrics point to a projected score near 71-62, well under the total.

Rich Crew’s Play: Under 149 (-110)
With UConn dictating tempo and Memphis struggling for efficiency, this one sets up as a strong under spot.