Maryland vs. Michigan State Predictions: Point Spread & Total Insights

Michigan State Spartans (22-5 SU, 18-9 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (21-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 26th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: BTN

Point Spread: MST +3.5/MARY -3.5

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans +139/-168

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Knee
• Chance Stephens (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Braden Pierce (Out) Eye

Recent Form

Michigan State Spartans Recent Game/Games

Michigan State improved to 22-5 on the season with a 75-62 road win over Michigan on Friday. The Spartans entered the game as +3 underdogs but not only pulled off the upset, they also covered the spread. The game’s total points of 137 fell short of the 150.5 O/U line.

After trailing 38-34 at halftime, Michigan State clamped down defensively in the 2nd half, allowing just 24 points while scoring 41 of their own to secure the win.

Maryland improved to 21-6 on the season with an 88-71 win over USC on Thursday. Playing at home, the Terrapins entered the game as -11.5 point favorites and covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 159, surpassing the over/under line of 154.5.

Maryland led 37-27 at halftime and put up 51 points in the 2nd half while allowing 44 points to USC.

Analysis

In their latest game, the Spartans put up 75 points, shooting 45.9% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They connected on 40.9% of their threes, hitting 9 out of 22 attempts while going 19/39 (48.7%) on two-point shots. At the free-throw line, they made 10 of 15 attempts, good for 66.7%.

Vladislav Goldin and Jase Richardson each scored 21 points, with Goldin shooting 7/11 and Richardson 7/12, including 2/4 from beyond the arc. Tre Holloman added 18 points, hitting 3 of 4 threes, and Danny Wolf contributed 11 points and eight assists. The Spartans grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and finished with 12 assists as a team.

Michigan State’s defense gave up 62 points, allowing the opponent to shoot 46% from the field. Inside the arc, they allowed 62% shooting with 18 makes on 29 attempts.

From three-point range, the opponent shot 23%, hitting 5 of 21 attempts. Michigan State also sent them to the line 18 times, where they made 11 free throws, shooting 61%.

Maryland’s offense was clicking in their last game, putting up 88 points with a field goal percentage of 49.2% and an effective field goal percentage of 55.6%. They hit 40% from beyond the arc, going 8-for-20, and were efficient at the free-throw line, making 18 of 21 attempts for 85.7%.

Rodney Rice led the way with 22 points, while Wesley Yates III added 21. Ja’Kobi Gillespie contributed 20 points, hitting 5 of 8 from three-point range. Derik Queen was a force on the boards, grabbing 17 rebounds to go along with his 13 points.

Maryland’s defense allowed 71 points in their last game, with the opponent shooting 49% from the field, hitting 31 of 63 attempts. Inside the arc, the opponent connected on 53% of their two-point shots, going 23 for 43.

From three-point range, the opponent shot 40%, making 8 of 20 attempts. They also capitalized on free throws, converting 18 of 21 for 85%. Maryland gave up nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Michigan State has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Across their ten previous home games, Maryland has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 76 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Spartans have a straight-up record of 4-6, and an ATS mark of 7-3.
• Maryland has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

As we head to the stretch run in the Big 10, we have a big-time conference matchup, as Michigan State looks to keep pace with Michigan for the conference lead, while Maryland still has an outside shot at the conference title with a win tonight. The Terrapins have won 4-straight and are favored by -3.5 at home. The Terrapins aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, but they are better than a Michigan State squad that really looks to attack the rim and get to the free-throw line. I think the Spartans will put a lot of pressure on Maryland’s defense, and I like Michigan State at +3.5.