Maryland vs. Illinois: Big Ten ATS Prediction & Betting Preview

Maryland Terrapins (14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5 SU, 9-8-1 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 23rd, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MARY +7.5/ILL -7.5

Total: 158.5

Money Line: Maryland Terrapins +270/-345

Notable Injuries

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Knee
• Chance Stephens (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Braden Pierce (Out) Eye

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Maryland Terrapins Recent Game/Games

Maryland improved to 14-5 on the season with a 69-66 win over Nebraska on Sunday. The Terrapins were -9.5 favorites at home but didn’t cover the spread.

They led 37-35 at halftime and edged out the Cornhuskers by allowing 31 points while scoring 32 in the second half. The game’s total points of 135 fell short of the 146.5 O/U line.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

The Illini fell to 13-5 on the season after a narrow 80-78 loss to Michigan State on Sunday. Illinois was a +1 underdog going into the game and didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game came in just under the O/U line of 159.5, with a combined 158 points.

Illinois trailed 36-36 at halftime and scored 42 points in the second half while allowing 44. Despite the close score, the Illini couldn’t pull off the win on the road.

Analysis

Maryland’s offense put up 69 points in their last game, shooting 44.8% from the field. They connected on 40% of their threes, going 10-for-25, and had an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%. Their free-throw shooting was a weak point, hitting just 58.3% from the line.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie led the way with 22 points, hitting 5 of 9 from deep and adding five assists. Andrew Morgan contributed 17 points and five rebounds, shooting 58.3% from the floor. Rodney Rice and Brice Williams added 15 and 14 points, respectively, while Selton Miguel chipped in 13 points and three assists.

Maryland’s defense gave up 66 points, with the opposing team shooting 44% from the field, hitting 26 of their 58 attempts. Inside the arc, they went 16/33, good for 48%.

From three-point range, Maryland allowed 10 made threes on 25 attempts, a 40% shooting performance. The opposing team also went 7/12 from the free-throw line, shooting 58%. Maryland gave up eight offensive rebounds.

Illinois put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 42.4% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 45.5%, with struggles from beyond the arc, hitting just 5 of 24 threes for 20.8%. They were more efficient inside, connecting on 54.8% of their two-point attempts.

At the free-throw line, the Illini shot 63%, making 17 of 27 attempts. They grabbed 15 offensive rebounds and dished out 16 assists. Will Riley led the team with 19 points, while Tre Holloman added 17 despite missing all 3 of his three-point attempts.

Despite Illinois giving up 80 points, they held their opponent to 43% shooting overall, with 45% from two-point range on 25 of 55 attempts. From beyond the arc, Illinois limited their opponent to just 3 made threes on 10 attempts, a 30% shooting performance.

Illinois sent their opponent to the free-throw line 27 times, where they converted 21 attempts for 77%. On the boards, Illinois allowed 13 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Terrapins have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 77 points per game in these contests.
• Across the Fighting Illini’s last three home games, the team averaged 84 points per game while allowing 75. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 2-1 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Terrapins have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini have a straight-up record of 8-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Maryland has been involved in some tight games of late, losing to Northwestern by two and beating Nebraska by three at home. As for Illinois, they nearly pulled off a road win over 8th-ranked Michigan State before losing by 2. Right now, the spread is sitting at -7.5, but this one has the feel of a tightly contested Big 10 matchup that could come down to the wire. My pick is to take Maryland at +7.5.