Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Point Spread Pick

Maryland Terrapins (10-6 SU, 5-11 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (12-3 SU, 8-5-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 14th, 2:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: BTN

Point Spread: MARY +9/ILL -9

Total: 139

Money Line: Maryland Terrapins +343/-454

Notable Injuries

Terrapins

• Jahari Long (Questionable) Lower Body
• Chance Stephens (Out) Knee
• Braden Pierce (Out) Undisclosed

Fighting Illini

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Suspension
• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Niccolo Moretti (Probable) Leg
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Recent Form

Coming into this game, Maryland has a record of 10-6, including a 2-3 record in Big Ten play. On the road this season, the Terrapins are 1-4, and they have gone just 1-9 in their last ten games away from home.

As an underdog this season, Maryland has gone 1-4, and they are coming off a 64-57 win over Michigan. For the year, the Terrapins have been outscored by an average of 5.2 points per game on the road.

So far this season, the over/under record for Maryland games is 4-12. Their games have averaged 133.9 points and today’s line of 139 is higher than the average OU line in their games (136.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 122 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 0-3.

As the underdog this season, Maryland has an ATS record of just 1-4 and an overall ATS mark of 5-11. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Terrapins have gone just 3-7 vs. the spread.

Illinois comes into this game with a record of 12-3, including a 3-1 mark in Big Ten play. The Fighting Illini are 10-1 at home this season, and they have won eight straight games on their home floor.

Illinois is favored by nine points in this game, and they have gone 10-1 this season when favored. Their average scoring margin at home this season is +18.8 points per game.

On the season, the over/under record for Illinois games is 8-7. Today’s over/under line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (147.1). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 153 points.

Illinois has an ATS record of 8-5-2 this season, including a mark of 5-5-1 when favored. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini are 5-4-1 vs. the spread. At home this year, Illinois has an ATS record of 5-5-1 and over their last 10 games at home, they are 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Against Michigan, Maryland had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 70.6 points per game. They scored 64 points and posted a field goal percentage of 40.8% in the game. Offensively, the Terrapins hold a season-long field goal percentage of 40%, placing them 363rd in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 389th in terms of percentage and 303rd in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Terrapins’ defense is positioned 22nd in the country, permitting 63.3 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 5.2 threes per game vs. Illinois. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 33.1%.

The Illinois offense is coming off a game in which they scored 71 points vs. Michigan State. Overall their field goal percentage was 41.8% while connecting on 7 threes. Leading Illinois in scoring vs. Michigan State was Coleman Hawkins with his 15 points. Marcus Domask also added 15 points for the Fighting Illini.

In the current season, the Illinois defense has excelled, sitting 75th in the nation by allowing 66.9 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.3 threes per game vs. Maryland. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 32.5%.

Betting Trends

• Although Maryland has a straight-up record of 1-4 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 57 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Illinois has an ATS record of 3-1-1 while averaging 78 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Terrapins have a straight-up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.
• The Fighting Illini have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread.

Crew’s Pick

The Illini are 9-1 at home this season losing to Marquette back on Nov 14th. Their latest home win was by just three points to Michigan State, but I think Illinois was a little off after falling to Purdue on the road in the proceeding game. They were easy spread winners in the six home wins before that winning all by 17 or greater points. Take Illinois -8.5.