Marquette vs. St. John’s: Over/Under Predictions & Expert CBB Picks

Marquette Golden Eagles (23-9 SU, 13-18-1 ATS) vs. St. John’s Red Storm (28-4 SU, 19-11-2 ATS)

When: Friday, March 14th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: FOX

Point Spread: MARQ +4.5/STJOHN -4.5

Total: 140.5

Money Line: Marquette Golden Eagles +172/-210

Notable Injuries

Golden Eagles

• Sean Jones (Out) Redshirt
• Al Amadou (Out) Redshirt

Red Storm

• Brady Dunlap (Out) Hand
• Jaiden Glover (Out) Wrist

Recent Form

Marquette Golden Eagles Recent Game/Games

Marquette improved to 23-9 on the season with an 89-87 road win over Xavier on Thursday. The Golden Eagles were -2.5 favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 176 exceeded the O/U line of 145.5.

After trailing 46-36 at halftime, Marquette turned things around by scoring 53 points in the 2nd half while holding Xavier to 41.

St. John’s Red Storm Recent Game/Games

St. John’s improved to 28-4 on the season with a 78-57 win over Butler on Thursday, March 13th. Playing at home, the Red Storm entered the game as -12.5 favorites and covered the spread with the victory.

Leading 37-26 at halftime, St. John’s scored 41 points in the 2nd half while holding Butler to 31. The game’s total points of 135 fell short of the 145.5 O/U line.

Analysis

Marquette’s offense put up 89 points in their last game, shooting 48.5% from the field and hitting 42.4% from three-point range, making 14 of 33 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 59.1%, and they connected on 84.6% of their free throws, going 11 for 13 from the line.

Ryan Conwell led the way with 38 points, shooting 72.2% overall and 63.6% from beyond the arc, hitting 7 of 11 threes. Kam Jones added 28 points, making 5 of 10 from deep, while Zach Freemantle contributed 15 points and seven rebounds.

Marquette’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 87 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed 19 two-point baskets on 34 attempts, with the opposing team hitting 55% of their shots inside the arc.

From three-point range, Marquette’s opponents connected on 11 of 23 attempts, shooting 47%. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 19 times, where they made 16 free throws, shooting 84%.

St. John’s put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 47.2% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 52.8%. They connected on 35% of their three-point attempts, going 7-for-20, and hit 51.9% of their shots inside the arc.

RJ Luis Jr. led the way with 20 points, while Kadary Richmond added 15 points and nine assists. Patrick McCaffery and Aaron Scott each shot 60%, with McCaffery hitting four threes at 57.1% efficiency.

St. John’s defense allowed 57 points in their last game, with their opponent shooting 47% from the field on 34 of 72 attempts. Inside the arc, they gave up 27 two-point baskets on 52 attempts, a 51% shooting rate.

From three-point range, St. John’s allowed seven made threes on 20 attempts, a 35% shooting rate. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 4 times, where they made three free throws, shooting 75%. The Red Storm gave up 14 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across the Golden Eagles’ last three road games, the team averaged 77 points per game while allowing 73. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 2-1 straight-up.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, St. John’s has an ATS record of 2-0-1 while averaging 81 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• The last ten games that Marquette was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-9 while going 1-9 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Red Storm have an ATS mark of just 5-4-1 in their last ten games. St. John’s posted a straight-up mark of 9-1 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

St John’s won each of the first two regular-season meetings, including beating Marquette this past Saturday. However, these games were both extremely tight, including the Red Storm winning on a last-second shot in their most recent matchup. These games were also really physical, and there were a ton of free throws on both sides. I’m staying away from the point spread in this one and am instead taking the over at 140.5, as this game should once again feature a ton of trips to the charity stripe.