Marquette vs. Purdue: College Basketball Picks Against the Spread

When: Tuesday, November 19th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FS1

Point Spread: PUR +4.5/MARQ -4.5

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +150/-190

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Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Brian Waddell (Questionable) Hand
• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Golden Eagles

• Sean Jones (Questionable) Knee

Recent Form

Purdue pulled off an 87-78 win over Alabama on Friday, November 15th, at home. Entering the game as +3.5 underdogs, the Boilermakers not only won but also covered the spread.

Leading 42-40 at halftime, Purdue scored 45 points in the 2nd half while holding Alabama to 38. The game’s total points ended at 165, exactly matching the over/under line.

Marquette picked up a 78-74 road win over Maryland on Friday, November 15th. Entering the game as +2.5 point underdogs, the Golden Eagles not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread.

After trailing 34-30 at halftime, Marquette turned things around by scoring 48 points in the 2nd half while allowing 40. The game’s total points of 152 went over the pre-game O/U line of 147.

Analysis

Purdue put up 87 points in their last game, shooting 49.2% from the field and 56.2% from three-point range, hitting 9 of 16 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 57.1%, and they connected on 16 of 25 free throws, a 64% rate.

Trey Kaufman-Renn led the way with 26 points and eight rebounds, shooting 12 of 23 from the field. Labaron Philon added 18 points, hitting 3 of 4 threes, while Braden Smith contributed 17 points and 10 assists despite going 0 for four from beyond the arc.

Defensively, Purdue struggled, giving up 78 points on 49% shooting from the field. They allowed 31 made field goals on 63 attempts.

From beyond the arc, Purdue’s defense gave up nine threes on 16 attempts, a 56% shooting percentage. They also sent the opponent to the free-throw line 25 times, where they converted 16 for 64%.

Marquette put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 44.8% from the field and 34.8% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 51.7%, and they hit 75% of their free throws, going 18-for-24 from the line. The Golden Eagles grabbed ten offensive rebounds and dished out ten assists.

Kam Jones led the way with 28 points, shooting 55.6% overall and 60% from three-point range. Derik Queen added 24 points, hitting 69.2% of his shots, while Ja’Kobi Gillespie also contributed 24 points, shooting 58.8% from the field and 44.4% from deep.

Marquette’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 74 points on 52% shooting from the field. The Golden Eagles allowed their opponent to connect on 22 of 36 two-point attempts, a 61% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Marquette’s opponent shot 36%, hitting 7 of 19 threes. The Golden Eagles also sent them to the line 14 times, where they made nine free throws, shooting 64%. Marquette gave up seven offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Boilermakers have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 73 points per game in these contests.
• Marquette has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 73 points per game while allowing 75. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Boilermakers have a straight-up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Golden Eagles have a straight-up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 7-3.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Purdue’s elite shooting efficiency ranks #7 in effective FG% (62.0%) and #5 in 3PT% (46.0%), setting them up well against a Marquette defense that allows 48.0% eFG% (#117). This shooting edge should help Purdue stay competitive. Ball control is another key, as Purdue ranks #72 in turnovers per game (10.5) and boasts a 1.857 assist/turnover ratio (#20), indicating they can handle Marquette’s high-pressure defense (#3 nationally in steal rate). Additionally, Purdue’s strong first-half scoring—43.3 points per game (#34)—gives them a chance to establish control early against Marquette’s middling first-half defense (#96). Take the Boilermakers +5.

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