Maine Black Bears vs. Duquesne Dukes Prediction and Best Bet

Maine Black Bears (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Duquesne Dukes (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS)

When: Wednesday, December 11th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, PA, Pittsburgh

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: MAINE +6.5/DUQ -6.5

Total: 132

Money Line: Maine Black Bears +218/-273

Notable Injuries

Black Bears

Dukes

Recent Form

Maine Black Bears Recent Game/Games

Maine fell to 4-5 on the season after an 87-72 road loss to Fordham on Sunday. The Black Bears entered the game as +5.5 underdogs and failed to cover the spread.

After trailing 37-23 at halftime, Maine scored 49 points in the 2nd half but allowed 50. The game’s total points of 159 exceeded the O/U line of 137.5.

Duquesne Dukes Recent Game/Games

Duquesne improved to 2-7 on the season with an 80-66 home win over Delaware on Friday, December 6th. The Dukes were favored by 3.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total points of 146 narrowly went over the pre-game line of 145.5.

After trailing 37-36 at halftime, Duquesne turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Delaware 44-29 to secure the win.

Analysis

Maine’s offense put up 72 points in their last game, shooting 39.4% from the field and hitting just 25% from beyond the arc, going 3-for-12. Their effective field goal percentage was 42.4%, with a two-point shooting mark of 42.6% (23/54).

At the free-throw line, the Black Bears were efficient, knocking down 17 of 19 attempts for an 89.5% rate. AJ Lopez led the way with 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Jackie Johnson III and Romad Dean each added 16 points, with Dean perfect from three-point range, hitting all 3 of his attempts.

Maine’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 87 points on 50% shooting. They allowed their opponent to hit 52% of their two-point attempts, with 22 makes on 42 tries.

From beyond the arc, Maine’s defense couldn’t contain the three-point shooting, as their opponent went 9/19 for 47%. They also sent the other team to the line 25 times, where they converted 16 free throws.

Duquesne put up 80 points in their last game, shooting 40.3% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. They hit 29.6% from three-point range, connecting on 8 of 27 attempts, while shooting 48.6% on two-pointers.

The Dukes were strong from the free-throw line, making 22 of 28 attempts (78.6%) and grabbing 20 offensive rebounds. Niels Lane led the way with 20 points, shooting 8 of 10 overall and 2 of 3 from deep. Tre Dinkins added 18 points, hitting 4 of 9 from three-point range.

Despite giving up 66 points, Duquesne’s defense held their opponents to 40% shooting from the field, with 25 made baskets on 62 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 17 two-point field goals on 35 attempts, a 48% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Duquesne’s defense limited their opponents to 8 made threes on 27 attempts, a 29% success rate. They also sent their opponents to the free-throw line 28 times, where they converted 22 free throws, shooting 78%. Duquesne gave up 20 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Maine has a 1-4 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 65 points per game while allowing 71. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Through their last three home contests, the Duke’s offense has averaged 61 points per game while allowing an average of 67. Duquesne posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Black Bears have a straight-up record of 3-7. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Dukes have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Duquesne comes into this matchup favored by -6.5 at home, but I feel really good about taking Maine to cover as road dogs tonight. Maine struggled in their last game vs Fordham, but I see this is a much better matchup for them. For this non-conference matchup, I like the Black Bears stack-up, and I am going with them at +6.5.