LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators Pick

LSU Tigers (24-5 SU, 17-11-1 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (17-12 SU, 12-17 ATS)
When: Wednesday, March 6, 2019 – 7 p.m. ET
Where: Exactech Arena, Gainesville, Florida
TV: ESPN2
By: Matt Lowry, College Basketball Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: LSU PK / FLA PK (MyBookie Sportsbook)
Total: O/U 137.5

Last Time Out: LSU beat Alabama 74-69; Florida lost to Georgia 61-55

Scouting the Tigers:

The Tigers enter the last week of SEC play on a three-game winning streak. They are now 14-2 in the SEC and are tied with Tennessee for the regular season title. They even beat Tennessee head to head a few games ago proving they can hang with the top teams in the country. This LSU team is extremely talented, but they will need Tremont Waters to play his best basketball coming down the stretch if the Tigers are going to compete for the SEC title and make a deep run in the tournament.

Scouting the Gators:

The Gators now find themselves tied for 4th in the SEC with four other teams. They missed their chance to move into 4th place outright when they took a blow to their tournament resume and were upset by Georgia last time they took the court. Not only did this loss come at home, but it also came to a team that is in 13th out of 14th in the SEC standings. The main problem for the Gators in this game was their shooting. They shot 37.5% from the field and 23.8% from the three-point line. Joe Lunardi still has the Gators as a 9th seed in his projections, which is very generous considering some of the losses that have fallen on the Gators. Now that they are facing a top 10 team, expect Florida to switch into another gear and try to earn another quality win.

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Head to Head:

The Gators outlasted the Tigers in Louisiana when these teams first met on February 20th. With that win, the Gators have now won three straight meetings with the Tigers and now can earn the season sweep on their home floor where they are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 meetings in Gainesville.

Notable Betting Trends:

The Gators are just a decent home team this year as they have a 9-5 record straight up on their home floor. What’s worse is their home against the spread record is 3-11 and they are 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 home games. LSU has an impressive road record against the spread this season, covering in 9 of their 13 games away from home. They are also 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 road games. More trends show that LSU is a perfect 7-0 straight up and their away record against the spread is 4-0 when they win their previous game by 5 to 9 points. When coming off a loss between 5 to 9 points, Florida is 3-0 overall and 2-1 against the spread.

LSU will Cover if:

Tremont Waters has a bounce back game. Water had just 10 points in the first meeting with the Gators while shooting 3 of 12. He then missed several games and most recently returned when the Tigers played the Crimson Tide. Waters also struggled in this game scoring only 5 points and shot 2 of 6 from the field. For a guy who is averaging 15.3 and leading his team, these two stat lines are a little concerning for LSU.

Florida will Cover if:

They can have a balanced scoring game. As it stands right now, KeVaughn Allen is the leading scorer for the Gators and is averaging 12.5 points per game. After Allen, there is Noah Locke who averages 10.3. Besides these two players, no one else averages more than 8.5 points. That will need to change if the Gators want to complete the season sweep. In the first meeting, four different Gators scored at least 10 points or more. KeVaughn Allen led the way with 21 points and shot 50% from the field. This balanced scoring night led the Gators to a win and they will need a similar type performance if they want to upset the Tigers again.

Matt’s Pick for LSU vs. Florida:

This game is basically a toss-up as most sportsbooks have Florida as a 1 or 1.5-point favorite. MyBookie even has this game as a straight up PK. Florida may have the slight edge recently head to head with the Tigers, but they have not proven that they can cover at home enough of the time to justify picking the Gators. Because of this, the safest pick is the LSU Tigers to win on the road.

Matt’s College Basketball Pick: LSU Tigers PK