Louisville vs. Florida State CBB Picks: Free Prediction & Analysis

Louisville Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 21st, 2:00 PM (ET)

Where: Donald L. Tucker Center, FL, Tallahassee

TV: CW

Point Spread: LOU -1.5/FLST +1.5

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Louisville Cardinals -120/-102

Notable Injuries

Cardinals

• Kasean Pryor (Out) Leg
• Aboubacar Traore (Out) Arm
• Koren Johnson (Out) Shoulder

Seminoles

• Bostyn Holt (Questionable) Foot

Recent Form

Louisville Cardinals Recent Game/Games

The Cardinals fell to 6-5 on the season after a 93-85 loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Louisville, who entered the game as +9.5 point underdogs, kept things closer than expected.

Louisville trailed 46-40 at halftime and scored 45 points in the 2nd half, but they couldn’t slow down Kentucky, who put up 47 points after the break. The total points for the game ended at 178, surpassing the O/U line of 160.

Florida State improved to 9-3 on the season with an 82-64 win over Winthrop on Tuesday. The Seminoles, who were -11 point favorites, covered the spread in the victory.

FSU led 45-27 at halftime but allowed 37 points in the 2nd half while scoring 37 themselves. The game’s total points of 146 fell under the O/U line of 159.5.

Analysis

Louisville’s offense put up 85 points in their last game, shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.9% from beyond the arc, hitting 14 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was 54.3%, and they went 9/14 from the free-throw line.

Lamont Butler was perfect, shooting 10/10 overall and 6/6 from three, finishing with 33 points and six assists. Chucky Hepburn added 26 points, while Terrence Edwards Jr. hit 5 of 7 threes, contributing 23 points.

Louisville’s defense struggled, giving up 93 points on 58% shooting from the field. They allowed 21 two-point baskets on 34 attempts, a 61% success rate for their opponent.

From beyond the arc, Louisville’s opponent shot 52%, hitting 11 of 21 threes. They also sent them to the line 28 times, where they made 18 free throws.

Florida State’s offense put up 82 points in their last game, shooting 50.8% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%. They hit 58.5% of their two-point attempts and 35% from beyond the arc, making seven threes on 20 attempts. At the free-throw line, they connected on 76.5%, going 13 for 17.

Malique Ewin was a force inside, shooting 66.7% and grabbing 15 rebounds, while Jamir Watkins led the team with 23 points and four assists. Bryce Baker knocked down six threes, shooting 50% from deep, and Chandler Jackson was perfect from three, hitting both of his attempts.

Despite Florida State’s defensive struggles, allowing 64 points on 50% shooting, they managed to keep their opponent’s three-point game in check, giving up just seven threes on 20 attempts (35%).

Florida State sent their opponent to the line 17 times, where they converted 13 free throws (76%). The Seminoles also gave up 16 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Louisville has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 1-9 while averaging 73 points per game.
• In their last five games at home, the Seminoles have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 73 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Seminoles have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Florida State posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Cardinals have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Louisville posted a straight-up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though Florida State is sitting at 9-3 this year, they are +1.5 point underdogs at home vs a 6-5 Louisville squad. But I don’t think the oddsmakers are putting enough emphasis on Florida State’s home-court advantage. The way I see it, these teams are really close, and getting FSU at +1.5 is a steal.