Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers predictions

Kentucky Wildcats (26-6 SU, 15-17-0 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (24-7 SU, 18-13-0 ATS)
When: Saturday March 12 2022, 3:00 PM PM (ET)
Where: Amalie Arena

Point Spread: Kentucky -2/Tennessee +2 (BAS)
Total: 139.5
Money Line: Wildcats -146/Tennessee +122

Key Injuries

Kentucky CJ Fredrick: Lower Body (OUT)

Tennessee Olivier Nkamhoua: Ankle (OUT)

Recent Form

The Kentucky Wildcats come into this matchup with an overall record of 26-6. On the season, the Wildcats have performed well in their 19 conference games, posting a record of 15-4. This mark is good for 2nd in the SEC. In addition to playing well in the SEC, Kentucky has performed well on the road. Through 14 games, the Wildcats are 8-6 away from home or at neutral sites. Heading into this matchup, the Wildcats are looking to stay hot as they try to add on to their current 3 game win streak.

The Tennessee Volunteers get set to host the Wildcats with an overall record of 24-7. On the season, the Volunteers have performed well in their 19 conference games, posting a record of 15-4. This mark is good for 3rd in the SEC. Heading into this matchup, the Volunteers will be looking for their 6th straight win.

For the season, the Kentucky Wildcats are averaging 80.0 points per game, good for a rank of 8th in the NCAA. When playing on the road, the Wildcats’ scoring average drops to 70 points. The team’s defensive performance also takes a hit when playing away from home, giving up an additional 2.0 points per game. On the other side, the Tennessee Volunteers are the 81st ranked scoring offense, averaging 73.6 points per game while allowing 63.2

Efficiency Outlook

Kentucky comes into this matchup as the more efficient scoring team. In these games, the Wildcats have a record of 26-5 on an average scoring margin of 15.0. Even though Tennessee trails Kentucky on the offensive end of the court, they enter this game holding the edge on defense. So far, the Volunteers are 23-5 with an edge in defensive efficiency. In these games, they hold an average scoring margin of 12.0.

For the year, the Wildcats are well below the NCAA average in percentage of points from made three-point shots, sitting at just 23.6%. This is unlike the Volunteers, who have relied on made three-pointers for 35.6% of their scoring this year. In terms of efficiency, Kentucky has been the more efficient team, connecting at a rate of 35.8%, compared to Tennessee at 35.5%.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Wildcats are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Joe’s Against the Spread Pick

Both teams are very good. In all candidness, there is little to no betting value here. If forced to make a pick, I believe Tennessee is the more consistent team, so I’d make a money line bet on the Vols.