Kentucky vs. Florida Expert Prediction & Analysis 2/22/23

Kentucky (18-9 SU 12-14 ATS) vs. Florida (14-13 SU 13-13 ATS)
When: Wednesday, February 22nd: 7:00 ET
Where: Exactech Arena Gainesville, FL
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: UK -3/UF +3
Total: 141.0
Money Line: Kentucky Wildcats -158/Florida Gators +129

The Kentucky Wildcats travel to Gainesville to meet the Florida Gators in SEC action on Wednesday night. The betting board lists UK as a -2.5 favorite, with the total line set at 140.5 points. Kentucky beat Florida at home back on February 4th and will look to their fourth straight over the Gators.

Line Movement:

Kentucky hit the board as high as a -3.5 point spread fav and has since been bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 141 and has since been bet down to 140.

Last Game Info

Kentucky will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Tennessee by a score of 66-54. The Wildcats also picked up an ATS victory closing as +1.5 point underdogs. The combined 120 points did not surpass the 132 total line.

Florida most recently fell to Arkansas (84-65). Not only did the Gators lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +9 point underdogs. The combined 149 points finished above the 142.5 total line.

Current Form

Kentucky
Over their last five games, Kentucky has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wildcats’ offense averages 70.0 points per game while hitting 44.1% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field while allowing 70.4 points per contest.

Florida
In their previous five contests, Florida is 1-4 straight-up and 1-3-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 72.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 48.0% of their shots while giving up 81.0 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Kentucky’s opponents comes in at 83.3. Conversely, Florida’s combined opponent power rating sits at 84.1.

How Does Kentucky Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wildcats have played seven road games and have a record of 4-3. In these contests, Kentucky is 4-3 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 67.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.7%. On defense, the Wildcats allow 69.3 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 43.6% in these games.

How Does Florida Fare At Home?

In their 14 games at home, Florida has a 7-7 record vs. the spread while going 10-4 straight-up. On offense, the Gators are shooting 48.7% on their home floor, leading to 78.1 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.4% in these contests. The Florida defense is allowing 66.1 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Kentucky is averaging 79.5 points per game (21st) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 48.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Florida defense that has allowed an average of 67.6 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.7% of their shots vs. Florida. On the other side, the Florida Gators are coming into the game averaging 70.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.8%. The Gators will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 67.5 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 43.6% of their shots vs. the Wildcats.

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Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Kentucky has a shooting percentage of 34.9% while ranking 592nd in attempts per game. The Wildcats will be facing a Florida defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 31.5%. Florida enters the game having hit 30.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.0 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Kentucky has allowed opponents to hit 32.8% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Kentucky

• CJ Fredrick (Questionable) Ribs
• Sahvir Wheeler (Out) Ankle
• Grant Darbyshire (Out) Lower Body

Florida

• Colin Castleton (Out) Hand

Pick Against The Line

I like the Under here. Kentucky has averaged only 70.5 points per game in SEC games, and they know that they have to play top-level defense to get the W. Here’s some data to back that up. Not once has UK won this season when they have allowed over 71 points. Florida can occasionally light it up, but they typically need to win the battle on the glass or shoot at a really high percentage. I’m banking on neither of those happening tonight. Take the Under 140.