Kansas vs. Houston: Expert College Basketball Predictions & ATS Selection

Kansas Jayhawks (19-10 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (26-4 SU, 16-13-1 ATS)

When: Monday, March 3rd, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fertitta Center, TX, Houston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: KAN +9.5/HOU -9.5

Total: 132.5

Money Line: Kansas Jayhawks +348/-467

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Notable Injuries

Jayhawks

• Shakeel Moore (Questionable) Foot
• Zach Clemence (Out) Groin
• Noah Shelby (Out) Undisclosed
• Elmarko Jackson (Out) Knee
• Jamari McDowell (Out) Redshirt

Cougars

• Ramon Walker Jr. (Out) Hand
• Jacob McFarland (Out) Leg

Recent Form

Kansas Jayhawks Recent Game/Games

The Jayhawks fell to 19-10 on the season after a 78-73 loss to Texas Tech on Saturday. Kansas, favored by 3.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 151, surpassing the over/under line of 144.5.

Kansas found themselves down 48-37 at halftime but tightened up defensively in the second half, allowing just 30 points while scoring 36. Despite the improved effort after the break, the Jayhawks couldn’t complete the comeback.

Houston Cougars Recent Game/Games

Houston improved to 26-4 on the season with a 73-64 home win over Cincinnati on March 1st. The Cougars were -13.5 favorites going into the game but didn’t cover the spread.

After leading 37-25 at halftime, Houston allowed 39 points in the 2nd half while scoring 36. The total points for the game were 137, surpassing the O/U line of 125.5.

Analysis

Kansas put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 48.3% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 4 of 18 attempts for a 22.2% rate, but were strong inside, connecting on 59.5% of their two-point shots.

KJ Adams and JT Toppin each scored 21 points, with Adams shooting 10 of 12 and grabbing 13 rebounds. Toppin hit 2 of 5 from three-point range, while Christian Anderson made five threes, finishing with 15 points and six assists.

Even with Kansas holding them to just four made threes, the opposing team still managed to put up 78 points. They shot 48% from the field, including 59% from two-point range, going 25/42 inside the arc.

At the free-throw line, they added 11 points on 16 attempts, hitting 68%. Kansas also gave up 11 offensive rebounds in the game.

Houston’s offense put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 53.6% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 57.1%, thanks to 64.3% shooting on two-point attempts, though they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 3 of 14 threes (21.4%).

At the free-throw line, the Cougars connected on 10 of 12 attempts, good for 83.3%. L.J. Cryer led the way with 20 points, while Day Day Thomas added 19 in just 20 minutes, shooting 66.7%. Jizzle James contributed 18 points and five assists.

Even though the Cougars gave up 64 points, they struggled defensively, allowing their opponent to shoot 53% from the field. Most of the damage came from inside the arc, where Houston allowed 27 two-point baskets on 42 attempts, a 64% shooting rate.

Houston did manage to limit the damage from three-point range, as their opponent only hit 3 of 14 attempts, shooting 21% from deep. The Cougars also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 12 times, where they converted 10 of those attempts, shooting 83%.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Jayhawks have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 3-6-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 68 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Houston has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Jayhawks have gone 0-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Cougars have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

So far this season, Houston has an average scoring margin of +16.8 PPG, and they are college basketball’s top defensive team. Offensively, Kansas struggles at two critical things at this stretch of the season: getting to the free-throw line and knocking down threes. I see the Jayhawks struggling on the road tonight, and I like Houston to win and cover.