Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick ATS 1/27/20

Kansas Jayhawks (16-3 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-9 SU, 7-12 ATS)
When: Monday, January 27, 9 p.m.
Where: Gallgher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: KU -8.5/OKST +8.5 (BetNow – Deposit $100 get a FREE $50 Bet!)
Total: O/U 134

Last Time Out:

Kansas held off Tennessee 74-68; Oklahoma State beat Texas A&M 73-62.

Scouting the Jayhawks:

Kansas is still paying the price for what happened Tuesday in Lawrence against rival Kansas State, as the Jayhawks are down two forwards with David McCormack and Silvio De Sousa suspended for their roles in their brawl with the Wildcats. Because of that, Bill Self has had to shift his lineup on the fly. Kansas now has to play with four guards and Udoka Azubuike under normal circumstances and five guards when Azubuike needs a breather. It’s far from an ideal situation, and it’s one that Tennessee exploited with their size to stay in the game from start to finish over the weekend.

That said, the Jayhawks still have some pretty talented guards, and Oklahoma State isn’t the bulkiest team in the Big 12 by a longshot, so this might be the right opponent at the right time. However, Kansas has had its problems with the Cowboys in years past, and Gallagher-Iba is never an easy trip, even when the Cowboys aren’t very good.

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Scouting the Cowboys:

The win is coming for Oklahoma State, the question is when. Other than a trip to Lubbock, where Texas Tech slammed the Cowboys by 35, Oklahoma State has been in every game it has played in the Big 12. Its past two games have been especially aggravating, as the Cowboys lost by just seven at home to top-ranked Baylor (there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write) and followed with a seven-point loss in Ames to Iowa State.

Where Oklahoma State has been getting the job done is behind the 3-point arc. The Cowboys have shot better than 40 percent from the perimeter in each of their past four games, but they haven’t been getting wins because Oklahoma State hasn’t been getting the job done inside. That really doesn’t bode well against this version of Kansas, as the Cowboy shooters are going to find themselves dealing with guard-heavy lineups that are quick enough to deny good looks at the basket. Oklahoma State’s turnovers were a big reason for their home loss to Baylor, and Kansas has the potential to cause the same problems.

X-Factor:

The interior. How will these teams approach it, given that Oklahoma State doesn’t like to play inside and Kansas can’t unless Azubuike is in the game? The Jayhawks can only get about 25 to 30 minutes out of Azubuike, and a few of those minutes will likely see him at the free-throw line. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State doesn’t really have anyone who likes to go inside consistently. Yor Anei and Cameron McGriff have the bodies to go inside if they choose to do so, but McGriff prefers to hang out in the mid-range area, as he ranks third on the team in 3-pointers attempted despite being one of the Cowboys’ taller players. Anei can do some damage when Azubuike is out of the game, but he can’t take on Azubuike alone, making it an interesting question as to whether either team will bother to take ownership of the paint.

Kansas will Cover if:

The Jayhawks can pound Azubuike inside while they have him on the court. Kansas doesn’t have a deep rotation, and it’s even thinner now, thanks to the suspensions. The Jayhawks have to take advantage of the time that he’s in the game and pound the ball at Oklahoma State’s thinner lineup. If Kansas can establish Azubuike early and play the kind of defense that they’ve done all season long, this is the Jayhawks’ game to win.

Oklahoma State will Cover if:

The Cowboys can get hot from behind the arc again. Oklahoma State doesn’t really have a lot of things that it does well other than hitting the deep shot, and when the Cowboys aren’t hitting from deep, things go sideways in a hurry. Oklahoma State managed to score just 40 points against TCU because it was not hitting from deep, and the Cowboys cannot repeat that performance if they’re going to have any hope of playing with the Jayhawks.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread:

Picking Kansas to win this game makes me nervous, because this is exactly the kind of game that the Jayhawks have historically found a way to screw up under Bill Self, and Oklahoma State has been getting closer to its first Big 12 win every time out. Throw in that the Jayhawks are on the road and are shorthanded, and this game seems to have all the makings of an Oklahoma State upset.

But I’m going to take the Jayhawks because I don’t think the Cowboys have the personnel needed to beat this Kansas team. The way to take advantage of KU’s shorthanded situation is to attack the middle, something that West Virginia and Baylor do very well. Not so for Oklahoma State, which prefers to play the perimeter as Plan A and doesn’t really have a Plan B if things go wrong. With Kansas playing four guards and sometimes five, this isn’t the kind of matchup that Oklahoma State is ready to take advantage of, and that’s especially true given how well Kansas plays defense. Where are you betting your college basketball picks? Does your book offer you discounted odds? No he doesn’t! Ditch your overpriced bookie TODAY and start saving big bucks by betting on all sports games at -105 odds at the best sportsbook online —> 5Dimes!