Joe Jensen’s Big 10 Pick: Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Preview

Michigan Wolverines (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (15-5 SU, 11-9 ATS)

When: Friday, January 24th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Mackey Arena, IN, West Lafayette

TV: FOX

Point Spread: MICH +3.5/PUR -3.5

Total: 151.5

Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +147/-180

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

Boilermakers

• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Michigan improved to 14-4 on the season with an 80-76 win over Northwestern on Sunday. The Wolverines were -9 favorites at home but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 156, going over the pre-game O/U line of 147.5.

After trailing 35-30 at halftime, Michigan turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Northwestern 50-41 to secure the win.

Purdue Boilermakers Recent Game/Games

Purdue’s season record dropped to 15-5 after a 73-70 loss to Ohio State on Tuesday. The Boilermakers, who were -10.5 favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread.

Purdue led 41-28 at halftime but struggled in the second half, scoring just 29 points while allowing 45. The total points for the game reached 143, going over the 140.5 O/U line.

Analysis

Michigan’s offense put up 80 points in their last game despite shooting just 36.1% from the field and 25.9% from three-point range. Their effective field goal percentage was 42.6%, but they made up for it by hitting 29 of 37 free throws, good for 78.4%.

Vladislav Goldin led the way with 31 points, shooting 56.2% overall and 50% from deep. Brooks Barnhizer added 21 points, and Nick Martinelli contributed 20, though he shot just 29.4% from the field. Jalen Leach was efficient, hitting 66.7% of his shots and 60% from three, finishing with 19 points and five assists.

Even though Michigan held their opponent to just 36% shooting from the field, they still gave up 76 points. The Wolverines allowed 15 two-point baskets on 34 attempts, a 44% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Michigan’s defense limited their opponent to 7 made threes on 27 attempts, just 25% shooting. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 37 times, where they converted 29 free throws, shooting 78%. The Wolverines also gave up 13 offensive rebounds.

Purdue put up 70 points in their last game, shooting 48.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 51.9%. They hit 33.3% of their threes, connecting on 3 of 9 attempts, and shot 51.1% from inside the arc, going 23 for 45. At the free-throw line, they made 15 of 20, good for 75%.

Micah Parrish was a standout, hitting 6 of 8 threes and shooting 80% overall, finishing with 22 points and seven rebounds. Trey Kaufman-Renn also had a big game, scoring 26 points on 11 of 16 shooting while adding seven rebounds and two assists.

Despite Purdue’s defensive efforts, they allowed 73 points on 48% shooting from the field. The opposing team connected on 23 of 45 two-point attempts, shooting 51% inside the arc.

From beyond the three-point line, Purdue’s defense held the opposition to 3 made threes on nine attempts, a 33% shooting performance. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 20 times, where they made 15 free throws, shooting 75%.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Michigan has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 86 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Purdue has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 70 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• The Wolverines have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Boilermakers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Friday night features a good Big 10 matchup, with Michigan facing Purdue on the road. The oddsmakers have Purdue as -3.5 point favorites in this one, and I think they take care of business at home. I think there’s good value at -3.5, and I’m taking the Boilermakers to cover.