Iowa vs. Northwestern Betting Pick – Can the Hawkeyes Cover on the Road?

Iowa Hawkeyes (15-13 SU, 11-17 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (15-13 SU, 15-13 ATS)

When: Friday, February 28th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, IL, Evanston

TV: FS1

Point Spread: IOWA +3.5/NW -3.5

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Iowa Hawkeyes +148/-180

Notable Injuries

Hawkeyes

• Drew Thelwell (Probable) Ankle
• Owen Freeman (Out) Finger
• Cooper Koch (Questionable) Undisclosed

Wildcats

• Jalen Leach (Out) Knee
• Brooks Barnhizer (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Iowa Hawkeyes Recent Game/Games

The Hawkeyes fell to 15-13 on the season after an 81-61 road loss to Illinois on Tuesday. Iowa entered the game as +11 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 142, well below the 169.5 O/U line.

After trailing 37-30 at halftime, Iowa struggled in the second half, scoring just 31 points while allowing 44 to Illinois.

Northwestern Wildcats Recent Game/Games

Northwestern improved to 15-13 on the season with a 75-63 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. The Wildcats, who were +1.5 point underdogs, pulled off the road win and covered the spread.

Northwestern led 36-31 at halftime and added 39 points in the 2nd half while allowing 32. The total points for the game were 138, surpassing the O/U line of 130.5.

Analysis

In their last game, Iowa’s offense managed 61 points, shooting 42.1% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc, with an effective field goal percentage of 47.4%. They hit 7 of 9 free throws, good for 77.8%, and collected 10 offensive rebounds, dishing out 14 assists as a team.

Tomislav Ivisic led the way with 22 points, shooting 69.2% overall and 40% from three. Brock Harding and Kylan Boswell both contributed 15 points, with Boswell adding seven assists. Will Riley also chipped in 15 points, though he struggled from deep, hitting just 1 of 6 attempts.

Despite Iowa’s defensive struggles, they allowed 81 points on 50% shooting from the field. The Hawkeyes gave up 67% shooting on two-point attempts, with their opponent hitting 23 of 34 shots inside the arc.

From three-point range, Iowa’s defense held their opponent to 31% shooting, as they connected on 9 of 29 attempts. The Hawkeyes also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 12 times, where they made eight free throws, shooting 66%.

Northwestern put up 75 points in their last game, shooting 49.1% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1%. They connected on 47.4% of their three-point attempts, going 9-for-19 from deep while hitting 50% of their two-point shots (19/38).

Nick Martinelli led the way with 29 points, shooting 55% overall and 60% from three (3/5). Dawson Garcia added 26 points, hitting 3-of-7 from beyond the arc. The Wildcats dished out 21 assists and grabbed eight offensive rebounds, though they struggled at the free-throw line, shooting 62.5% (10/16).

Northwestern’s defense held their opponent to 63 points, with a field goal percentage of 42% on 24 of 57 shooting. They allowed 19 two-point field goals on 38 attempts, a 50% conversion rate.

From beyond the arc, Northwestern limited their opponent to 5 threes on 19 attempts, a 26% shooting performance. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 14 times, where they made 10, shooting 71%. Northwestern gave up 12 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Iowa has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 71 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Northwestern has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 73 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Hawkeyes have a straight-up record of 1-9. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-8.
• As the betting favorite, the Wildcats have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Northwestern posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into this one, Iowa is the better offensive team, averaging 83.1 PPG this season. However, they are also one of the worst defensive units in college basketball. Opponents have hit 48% of their shots vs Iowa this season, and they are hitting 34.7% of their threes vs the Hawkeyes. However, Northwestern is far from an offensive juggernaut, and I actually like Iowa’s matchup in this one. I’m taking the Hawkeyes to cover at +3.5.