Iowa vs. Minnesota Betting Preview and Prediction

Iowa (15-9 SU 15-9 ATS) vs. Minnesota (7-15 SU 12-10 ATS)
When: Sunday, February 12th: 1:00 ET
Where: Williams Arena Minneapolis, MN
TV: FS1
Point Spread: IA -11.5/Min +11.5
Total: 147.0
Money Line: Iowa Hawkeyes -720/Minnesota Golden Gophers +500

The Iowa Hawkeyes head to the Twin Cities to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in an early Sunday afternoon game. The Hawkeyes are a huge favorite to win this game, listed as a -11.5 on the point spread line.
We’ll break down the game and give out our Iowa/Min pick against the spread.

Line Movement

The Hawkeyes opened up on most betting boards as a -11 favorite but have been bet up -12 at some of the shops catering to more recreational bettors. The total opened at 147.5 points and has now dipped to 146.5.

Last Game Info

Iowa most recently fell to Purdue (87-73). Not only did the Hawkeyes lose straight-up, but they failed to cover as an ATS as +7.5 point underdogs. The combined 160 points finished above the 149.5 total line.

Minnesota lost to Maryland in their last game by a score of 81-46. But because the Golden Gophers were +9.5 point underdogs, they finished with an ATS win. The combined 127 points did not surpass the 128.5 total line.

Current Form

Iowa
Over their last five games, Iowa has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Hawkeyes offense averages 78.8 points per game while hitting 47.0% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 48.0% from the field while allowing 76.2 points per contest.

Minnesota
In their previous five contests, Minnesota is 0-5 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 55.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 38.1%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 48.3% of their shots while giving up 74.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Iowa’s opponents comes in at 83.5. On the other side, Minnesota’s combined opponent power rating sits at 82.2.

How Does Iowa Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Hawkeyes have played eight road games and have a record of 2-6. In these contests, Iowa is 3-5 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.0%. On defense, the Hawkeyes allow 75.4 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 47.0% in these games.

How Does Minnesota Fare At Home?

In their 14 games at home, Minnesota has a 7-7 record vs. the spread while going 6-8 straight-up. On offense, the Golden Gophers are shooting 41.2% on their home floor, leading to 60.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 43.0% in these contests. The Minnesota defense is allowing 66.9 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Iowa is averaging 83.8 points per game (7th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Minnesota defense that has allowed an average of 69.3 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 44.0% of their shots vs. Minnesota. On the other side, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming into the game averaging 67.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.8%. The Golden Gophers will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 74.1 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 46.3% of their shots vs. the Hawkeyes.

More CBB Picks: Get handicapper Rich Crew’s betting analysis and recommended bet 2/12/23

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Iowa has a shooting percentage of 36.8% while ranking 178th in attempts per game. The Hawkeyes will be facing a Minnesota defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 36.1%. Minnesota enters the game having hit 36.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.8 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Iowa has allowed opponents to hit 34.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Iowa

• No Reported Injuries

Minnesota

• Isaiah Ihnen (Out) Knee
• Dawson Garcia (Out) Ankle
• Parker Fox (Out) Knee
• Braeden Carrington (Out) Leg

Pick Against The Spread

This game is a bit difficult to handicap, not knowing the status of the Golden Gophers’ top player leading scorer 14.9 PPG and rebounder 6.3 PPG Dawson Garcia (game-time decision). That said, I think we can see some points here. Iowa is the highest-scoring team in the Big Ten (81.1) and ranked 11th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Their defense is the polar opposite ranking 225th in team defensive efficiency and 273rd in opponents points per game (74.1). Minnesota’s offensive has been putrid even with Garcia in the lineup, failing to surpass 61 points in their last seven, but they haven’t played a defense of this level arguably all season. Take the Over 146.5