Iowa State vs. Iowa Betting Pick: Rivalry Matchup and Prediction

Iowa State Cyclones (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 12th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, IA, Iowa City

TV: FS1

Point Spread: IOWAST -6/IOWA +6

Total: 160

Money Line: Iowa State Cyclones -247/+198

Notable Injuries

Cyclones

• Conrad Hawley (Out) Shoulder

Hawkeyes

• Seydou Traore (Probable) Ankle
• Cooper Koch (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Iowa State improved to 7-1 on the season with a dominant 100-58 win over Jackson State on Sunday. The Cyclones, who were -36 point favorites, covered the spread comfortably. The game’s total points reached 158, surpassing the O/U line of 145.5.

Iowa State took control early, leading 46-24 at halftime. They continued their strong play in the second half, scoring 54 points while allowing 34.

In their latest outing, the Hawkeyes fell to 7-2 on the season after a narrow 85-83 loss to Michigan on Saturday. Iowa was +9.5 point underdogs going into the game, but they managed to keep it closer than expected.

After trailing 40-37 at halftime, Iowa put up 46 points in the 2nd half but allowed 45. The total points for the game reached 168, going over the pre-game O/U line of 159.5.

Analysis

Iowa State’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 100 points with a field goal percentage of 50.7%. They connected on 11 of 28 three-point attempts, shooting 39.3% from deep, and finished 21 of 29 from the free-throw line, good for 72.4%. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 59.7%, thanks in part to their 59% shooting on two-point attempts.

The Cyclones also dished out 26 assists and grabbed 15 offensive rebounds. Dorian McMillian led the way with 20 points despite shooting just 36.4% overall and from three-point range. Curtis Jones added 19 points, hitting 5 of 10 threes, while Milan Momcilovic contributed 18 points, connecting on 4 of 6 from beyond the arc.

Despite Iowa State’s defensive efforts, they allowed 58 points on 50% shooting from the field. The opposing team connected on 34 of their 67 attempts.

From beyond the arc, Iowa State’s defense gave up 11 threes on 28 attempts, a 39% shooting rate. They also sent the other team to the line 29 times, where they hit 21 free throws, shooting 72%.

The Hawkeyes put up 83 points in their last outing, shooting 41.6% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 9 of 27 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 46.8%, and they struggled at the free-throw line, converting just 58.8% of their 17 attempts.

Vladislav Goldin led the way with 20 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 75% from the field. Payton Sandfort added 19 points, hitting 4 of 10 threes, while Tre Donaldson contributed 18 points and five assists, shooting 60% overall and 66.7% from deep.

Despite Iowa’s defensive struggles, they gave up 85 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 55% from the field. The Hawkeyes were particularly vulnerable inside, as they allowed 73% shooting on two-point attempts, with their opponent hitting 28 of 38 shots.

From beyond the arc, Iowa held their opponent to 20% shooting, with just 4 made threes on 20 attempts. However, they sent their opponent to the free-throw line 22 times, where they converted 17 free throws at a 77% rate. Iowa also gave up 11 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Iowa State has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 79 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Iowa has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 80 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Hawkeyes have a straight-up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Cyclones have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight-up mark of 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

In a small CBB slate, we have a fun one between Iowa State and Iowa. Currently, the line sits at -6 for the visiting Cyclones. Iowa is coming off a tough road loss to Michigan last weekend and will be looking to get their first signature win of the season. Although I see Iowa State eventually pulling this one out, I think Iowa plays them tough right to the end. Look for the Hawkeyes to make things interesting at home and cover the spread at +6.