Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins Total Pick | Feb 14/24

Iowa Hawkeyes (14-10 SU, 9-15 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (13-11 SU, 9-14 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 14th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: BTN

Point Spread: IOWA +5/MARY -5

Total: 147.5

Money Line: Iowa Hawkeyes +175/-215

Notable Injuries

Hawkeyes

• Carter Kingsbury (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Riley Mulvey (Out) Redshirt

Terrapins

• Jordan Geronimo (Questionable) Hand
• Chance Stephens (Out) Knee
• Braden Pierce (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Today, Iowa will be playing as the underdog once again, as they have been in 9 of their 23 games this season. So far, the Hawkeyes have gone 2-7 in these games. On the road, they have gone 2-6 this season, and they have gone 3-7 in their last ten games away from home.

In their last game, Iowa defeated Minnesota by a score of 90-85. So far this season, they have gone 14-10, and they are 6-7 in Big Ten play. They have gone 8-3 in non-conference games.

This season, the over/under record for Iowa games is 16-8. So far, the average over/under line in their games is 160.6 and the average point total is 162.2. Today’s over/under line is set at 145. This year, all 24 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 145. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average point total is 165.

As the underdog this season, Iowa has gone 3-6 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-5 and they are 4-6 in their last 10 road games vs. the spread. Over their last three games as the underdog, the Hawkeyes are 1-2 vs. the spread.

Coming into this game, Maryland is 10-4 at home this season compared to 3-6 on the road. The Terrapins have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games at home, and their average scoring margin at home is +11.4. On the year, Maryland has been favored in 14 games, going 10-4 in those contests.

Overall, the Terrapins are 13-11 this season, including a 5-7 record in Big Ten play. They are currently on a two-game losing streak, and in their last game, they lost to Rutgers by a score of 56-53.

Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than the average over/under line in Maryland’s games this season (136.1) and their over/under record is 6-17. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 126 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 1-2. On the year, 19 of their games have finished with less points than today’s OU line.

Against the spread, Maryland has a record of 9-14 this season. At home, they are 5-9 vs. the spread. Over their last three games as the favorite, the Terps are just 1-2.

Analysis

The Iowa offense is coming off a game in which they scored 90 points vs. Minnesota. Overall their field goal percentage was 47.7% while connecting on 5 threes. For the season, the Iowa offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 48%. So far, they have hit 53% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 6.5 made three’s per contest.

Coming into the game, Iowa will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 78.0 points per game (287th). In their previous game vs. Minnesota, the Golden Gophers finished with a field goal percentage of 47% and a total of 85 points vs. Iowa.

In their recent matchup, the Maryland offense ended with 53 points against Rutgers. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 31.5% and made 2 threes. On offense, Maryland has been struggling with their efficiency, coming into today’s game with a field goal percentgage of 40%. So far, they are 31st in free-throws made on a free throw shooting percentage of 71%.

This season, the Maryland defense has been impressive, holding the 14th position in the country while permitting an average of 63.7 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Maryland’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.8% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 32.2% this season.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Hawkeyes have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 75 points per game in this stretch.
• Across the Terrapins last three home games, the team averaged 66 points per game while allowing 69. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• The last ten games that Iowa was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 2-8 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Terrapins have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Maryland posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

The Terps play really good defense and especially at home holding Big Ten rivals Purdue to 67, Michigan 57, Michigan St 61, Nebraska 51 and Rutgers 56 with only Penn St getting over 70 points (71) back on December 6th. They held the Hawkeyes to 67 on their own home court and I expect a number in that range or lower this time around. The Iowa defense certainly isn’t strong, but that leaves 80 points or more. Which is a number that Maryland hasn’t scored in regualtion in conference games this season. Take the Under 147.5.