Iowa at Purdue Total Pick & Analysis for 2/9/23

Iowa (15-8 SU 15-8 ATS) vs. Purdue (22-2 SU 9-14 ATS)
When: Thursday, February 9th: 7:00 ET
Where: Mackey Arena West Lafayette, IN
TV: ESPN2
Point Spread: IA +7/PU -7
Total: 149.5
Money Line: Iowa Hawkeyes +243/Purdue Boilermakers -313

Line Movement

Last Game Info

Iowa is coming off an 81-79 win over Illinois. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as -3 point favorites. The combined 160 points finished above the 154.5 total line.

Purdue most recently fell to Indiana (79-74). Not only did the Boilermakers lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +0.5 point underdogs. The combined 153 points finished above the 137.5 total line.

Current Form

Iowa
Over their last five games, Iowa has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Hawkeyes offense averages 79.6 points per game while hitting 47.0% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 48.3% from the field while allowing 77.4 points per contest.

Purdue
In their previous five contests, Purdue is 4-1 straight-up and 2-2-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 72.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 48.9%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 45.2% of their shots while giving up 65.0 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Iowa’s opponents comes in at 83. On the other side, Purdue’s combined opponent power rating sits at 82.8.

How Does Iowa Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Hawkeyes have played seven road games and have a record of 2-5. In these contests, Iowa is 3-4 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 41.6%. On defense, the Hawkeyes allow 73.7 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 45.8% in these games.

How Does Purdue Fare At Home?

In their 14 games at home, Purdue has a 4-10 record vs. the spread while going 13-1 straight-up. On offense, the Boilermakers are shooting 45.8% on their home floor, leading to 74.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 40.5% in these contests. The Purdue defense is allowing 58.4 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Iowa is averaging 83.8 points per game (7th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Purdue defense that has allowed an average of 61.1 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.1% of their shots vs. Purdue. On the other side, the Purdue Boilermakers are coming into the game averaging 79.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 49.3%. The Boilermakers will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 73.5 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 45.9% of their shots vs. the Hawkeyes.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Iowa has a shooting percentage of 36.8% while ranking 178th in attempts per game. The Hawkeyes will be facing a Purdue defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 31.3%. Purdue enters the game having hit 39.1% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.74 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Iowa has allowed opponents to hit 34.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Iowa

• Josh Ogundele (Out) Knee

Purdue

• No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

Two of the best offensive teams in the game are facing off, but don’t be quick to assume that the Over is the way to go. Iowa boasts the top scoring record in the Big Ten, averaging 81.5 points per game and 78.6 in conference play. Additionally, Purdue’s recent performance against Indiana, who themselves are the second highest-scoring team in the Big Ten, raises some questions. The Boilermakers gave up 79 points and were vulnerable in the paint with a 55.3% shooting rate. This game could be a turning point for Purdue’s defense. On the other hand, while Iowa is strong at home in the paint, they struggle on the road with only a 46.7% shooting rate and have been held to under 70 points in four of their nine games away from home. My prediction is that Purdue will keep this Under, taking advantage of Iowa’s struggles on the road.