Illinois vs. Oregon: Joe’s Expert Picks & Best Bets

Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 2nd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Matthew Knight Arena, OR, Eugene

TV: FS1

Point Spread: ILL +4.5/ORE -4.5

Total: 156.5

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini +156/-193

Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt

Ducks

• Andre Warren (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Dezdrick Lindsay (Out) Shoulder
• Oleksandr Kobzystyi (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Illinois improved to 9-3 on the season with a dominant 117-64 win over Chicago State on Sunday. Playing at home, the Illini were -38.5 point favorites going into the game and covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 181, surpassing the over/under line of 150.5.

Illinois took control early, leading 60-24 at halftime. They continued to pile on in the second half, scoring 57 points while allowing 40.

Oregon Ducks Recent Game/Games

The Ducks improved to 12-1 this season with an 89-49 win over Weber State on Sunday. Oregon, playing at home, entered the game as -21 point favorites and covered the spread comfortably. The total points for the game were 138, just under the O/U line of 143.5.

Oregon led 40-23 at halftime and continued their strong play in the second half, scoring 49 points while holding Weber State to 26. The Ducks’ defense and offense were both on point as they cruised to another win.

Analysis

Illinois put up 117 points in their last game, shooting 62.1% from the field and knocking down 15 threes at a 45.5% clip. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 72.7%, with a 78.8% success rate on two-point attempts.

Tomislav Ivisic led the way with 23 points and five assists, hitting 3 of 4 from deep. Gabe Spinelli added 20 points, connecting on 4 of 5 threes, while Kylan Boswell posted a double-double with 18 points and 10 assists.

Despite Illinois allowing 64 points, their defense struggled, giving up a 62% shooting performance from the field. The opposing team hit 41 of their 66 shots.

Illinois also gave up 15 threes on 33 attempts, with the other team shooting 45% from deep. They sent the opponent to the line 28 times, where they made 20 free throws.

Oregon’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 89 points while shooting 55% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 63.3%, with the Ducks hitting 63.2% of their two-point attempts and 40.9% from beyond the arc. They also connected on 82.4% of their free throws, going 14-for-17 from the line.

Jackson Shelstad led the way with 16 points, shooting 7-for-10 from the field and 2-for-4 from three-point range. Brandon Angel was perfect from the floor, going 5-for-5 and hitting his only three-point attempt, finishing with 14 points and seven rebounds. Jadrian Tracey also added 14 points, knocking down 4 of his five three-point attempts.

Despite Oregon’s defensive struggles, they managed to hold their opponent to 49 points. However, they allowed a 55% shooting performance, with 33 made field goals on 60 attempts.

The Ducks gave up 24 two-point baskets on 38 attempts (63%) and nine three-pointers on 22 attempts (40%). Their opponent also shot 82% from the free-throw line, making 14 of 17 attempts. Oregon allowed nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across the Fighting Illini’s last three road games, the team averaged 66 points per game while allowing 74. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 0-3 while going 1-2 straight-up.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Oregon has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 75 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Illinois has an ATS mark of 2-2-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Ducks have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Illinois and Oregon jump back into Big 10 action in what should be a fun one in Eugene tonight. These two teams figure to be right near the top of the Big 10 all season long, and this is a good chance to see how they stack up. Look for Oregon to get off to a fast start in this one, and I like them to cover at -4.5.