Illinois vs. Northwestern: Big Ten Point Spread Prediction
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)
When: Friday, December 6th, 9:00 PM (ET)
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, IL, Evanston
TV: BTN
Point Spread: ILL -3.5/NW +3.5
Total: 143.5
Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini -174/+142
Notable Injuries
Fighting Illini
- Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt
Wildcats
Recent Form
Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games
Illinois improved to 6-1 on the season with a 90-77 home win over Arkansas on Thursday. The Illini entered the game as -4.5 favorites and covered the spread with the victory.
Illinois jumped out to a 49-34 lead at halftime but allowed 43 points in the 2nd half while scoring 41. The game’s total points of 167 exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 155.
Northwestern fell to 6-3 on the season after a narrow 80-79 loss to Iowa on Tuesday. The Wildcats, who were +5.5 point underdogs, managed to cover the spread. The game’s total points hit 159, surpassing the O/U line of 148.
Northwestern trailed 45-34 at halftime but rallied in the second half, outscoring Iowa 45-35. Despite the strong finish, they couldn’t complete the comeback.
Analysis
Illinois put up 90 points in their last game, shooting 52.6% from the field and 48.4% from beyond the arc, hitting 15 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 66.7%, with 15 made free throws on 22 attempts (68.2%).
Adou Thiero and Kasparas Jakucionis both scored 26 points, with Jakucionis adding four assists. Tomislav Ivisic contributed 21 points and ten rebounds, hitting 6 of 9 threes, while Kylan Boswell added 18 points and six assists.
Illinois struggled defensively, giving up 77 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed the opposing team to hit 30 of their 57 shot attempts.
From beyond the arc, Illinois gave up 15 threes on 31 attempts, a 48% shooting performance. They also sent the other team to the line 22 times, where they made 15 free throws.
Northwestern’s offense put up 79 points in their latest game, shooting 48.3% from the field and posting an effective field goal percentage of 55%. They connected on 38.1% of their three-point attempts, going 8-for-21 from deep, and hit 81.2% of their free throws, making 13 of 16. The Wildcats also pulled down 11 offensive rebounds and dished out 13 assists.
Josh Dix led the way with 22 points and six rebounds, shooting 56.2% overall and 37.5% from three. Brooks Barnhizer added 21 points and 10 rebounds, while Payton Sandfort and Ty Berry each contributed 20 points, with Berry hitting five threes at a 55.6% rate. Nick Martinelli also chipped in 19 points, and Owen Freeman was efficient, shooting 77.8% from the field.
Northwestern’s defense struggled, giving up 80 points on 54% shooting, including 65% from two-point range, as they allowed 30 made field goals on 55 attempts.
From beyond the arc, Northwestern allowed nine threes on 23 attempts, a 39% shooting performance. They also sent the opposing team to the line 19 times, where they made 11 free throws.
Betting Trends
- Across their ten previous road games, Illinois has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 80 points per game.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Wildcats offense has averaged 66 points per game while allowing an average of 67. Northwestern posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 7-3 ATS.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Wildcats have a straight-up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
- The Fighting Illini have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread
This battle between two Illinois teams will be an early season measuring stick in regards to where they stand in the Big 10. Illinois was slated 4th in the pre-season Big Ten coaches poll, while Northwestern was 16th. I think we see this gap play out tonight, and with the spread sitting at just -3.5, I really like the Illini to win and cover on the road.
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