Illinois vs. Michigan State: Against the Spread Prediction

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-8 SU, 7-10-1 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (12-6 SU, 8-10 ATS)

When: Monday, January 20th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Bryce Jordan Center, PA, University Park

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: RUTGER +6.5/PENNST -6.5

Total: 157.5

Money Line: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +218/-273

Notable Injuries

Scarlet Knights

Nittany Lions

• Eli Rice (Out) Undisclosed
• Hudson Ward (Questionable) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Recent Game/Games

Rutgers improved to 10-8 on the season with an 85-82 win over Nebraska on Thursday. The Scarlet Knights were +8.5 point underdogs going into the game and covered the spread with the win.

Rutgers led 40-37 at halftime and scored 45 points in the second half while allowing 45 points. The total points for the game were 167, going over the O/U line of 146.5.

Penn State Nittany Lions Recent Game/Games

Penn State dropped to 12-6 on the season after a 90-85 road loss to Michigan State on Wednesday. Entering the game as +11.5 point underdogs, the Nittany Lions kept things closer than expected.

After trailing 46-36 at halftime, Penn State put up 49 points in the 2nd half while allowing 44. The game’s total points of 175 exceeded the O/U line of 151.5.

Analysis

Rutgers put up 85 points in their last game, shooting 49.3% from the field and 41.4% from three-point range, with an effective field goal percentage of 58.2%. They also grabbed 17 offensive rebounds and dished out 16 assists, though they struggled at the free-throw line, hitting just 50% of their attempts.

Ace Bailey led the way with 24 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 4-of-7 from deep. Brice Williams and Dylan Harper each added 21 points, while Juwan Gary contributed 20. Dylan Grant was efficient, hitting 7-of-8 shots, and Zach Martini connected on 3-of-4 threes, finishing with 11 points.

Rutgers struggled defensively, giving up 82 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 45% from the field. They allowed 19 two-point field goals on 40 attempts, a 47% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Rutgers’ defense gave up nine threes on 22 attempts, with their opponent shooting 40%. They also sent them to the free-throw line 27 times, where they made 17 free throws, shooting 63%.

Penn State’s offense put up 85 points in their last game, shooting 52.8% from the field and 41.7% from beyond the arc, with an effective field goal percentage of 62.3%. They connected on 18 of 29 two-point attempts (62.1%) and went 19 for 25 from the free-throw line (76%).

Ace Baldwin Jr. dished out nine assists, while D’Marco Dunn and Frankie Fidler each contributed 18 points. Dunn hit 4 of 7 threes, and Zach Hicks matched that, shooting 57.1% from deep. The team finished with 20 assists and eight offensive rebounds.

Penn State’s defense struggled, giving up 90 points while allowing their opponent to shoot 47% from the field. They had particular trouble inside, where their opponent hit 57% of their two-point attempts.

From beyond the arc, Penn State held their opponent to 26% shooting, with just 6 made threes. However, they sent their opponent to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 83% of their attempts. Penn State also allowed 15 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Scarlet Knights have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-2-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 80 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three home contests, the Nittany Lions offense has averaged 70 points per game while allowing an average of 81. Penn State posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• The Scarlet Knights have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• The last ten games that Penn State was favored, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 9-1 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Back in January, Penn State was crushed by Illinois, but since then, they lost by just 1 to Oregon and only 5 to Michigan State. Even though they have been playing some good teams tough, I still think this number is set too high. My pick is to take the Scarlet Knights to keep this closer than +6.5.