Illinois vs. Indiana: Big Ten Betting Pick & Predictions

Illinois Fighting Illini (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 14th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, IN, Bloomington

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: ILL -3/IND +3

Total: 158

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini -176/+145

Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt
• Kasparas Jakucionis (Questionable) Forearm

Hoosiers

• Malik Reneau (Out) Lower Body
• Gabe Cupps (Out) Lower Body
• Jakai Newton (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois fell to 12-4 on the season after an 82-72 home loss to USC on Saturday. The Illini, who were -12.5 favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 154, just over the O/U line of 153.5.

Illinois led 38-35 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring 34 points while allowing 47.

Indiana’s season record dropped to 13-4 after a tough 85-60 loss to Iowa on Saturday. The Hoosiers were +5 underdogs going into the game and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 145, falling short of the O/U line of 166.5.

Indiana trailed 43-33 at halftime and struggled in the 2nd half, scoring just 27 points while allowing 42.

Analysis

In their latest game, Illinois struggled from the field, shooting just 37.1% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc, hitting only 7 of 32 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 41.9%, but they excelled at the free-throw line, making 19 of 21 attempts for 90.5%.

Desmond Claude led the way with 31 points, shooting 60.0% from the field. Wesley Yates III was efficient as well, hitting 7 of 8 shots. Ben Humrichous contributed 15 points, connecting on 3 of 8 threes, while Rashaun Agee also hit three threes, shooting 60.0% from deep.

Despite Illinois holding their opponent to just 37% shooting from the field, they gave up 82 points. The Illini defense allowed 53% shooting on two-point attempts, with their opponent hitting 16 of 30 shots inside the arc.

Illinois did a good job defending the three-point line, as their opponent shot just 21% from deep, making 7 of 32 attempts. However, they sent their opponent to the free-throw line 21 times, where they converted 19 of those attempts for 90%.

In their last game, Indiana’s offense struggled, scoring just 60 points with a field goal percentage of 40.7%. They hit only 4 of 16 from beyond the arc, shooting 25% from three, and connected on 61.5% of their free throws.

Payton Sandfort led the way with 23 points, hitting four threes at 44.4% shooting. Owen Freeman added 16 points and 12 rebounds, shooting 61.5% from the field.

Indiana’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 85 points on 54% shooting from the field. They allowed the opposing team to hit 21 of 35 two-point attempts, a 60% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Indiana’s defense couldn’t contain the three-point shooters, who connected on 11 of 24 attempts, shooting 45%. They also sent the other team to the line 18 times, where they made 10 free throws.

Betting Trends

• Across the Fighting Illini’s last five road games, the team averaged 77 points per game while allowing 75. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-4 while going 3-2 straight-up.
• In their last five games at home, the Hoosiers have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 73 points per game in these contests.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Hoosiers have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have a strong record of 4-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Illinois is looking to bounce back from a 10-point loss to USC at home on Saturday, and they are favored by -3 on the road vs Indiana. On the other hand, Indiana was embarrassed by Iowa on the road. However, one thing that worked in their favor was that they actually beat USC, while Illinois really struggled against them. I think Indiana really benefits from being at home in this one, and I like them to cover at +3.