Big Ten Battle: Illinois at Michigan State ATS Prediction

Illinois Fighting Illini (13-4 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (15-2 SU, 11-6 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 19th, 12:00 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ILL +3.5/MST -3.5

Total: 155.5

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini +138/-167

Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt

Spartans

• Nick Sanders (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois improved to 13-4 on the season with a dominant 94-69 win over Indiana on Tuesday. The Illini, who were -6 favorites, not only covered the spread but also helped push the total points over the 160.5 line, as the game ended with 163 combined points.

Illinois took control early, leading 60-32 at halftime. While they allowed 37 points in the second half, they still managed to outscore Indiana by adding 34 points of their own.

Michigan State improved to 15-2 on the season with a 90-85 win over Penn State on Wednesday. The Spartans were -11.5 favorites at home but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 175 exceeded the O/U line of 151.5.

Michigan State led 46-36 at halftime but allowed 49 points in the 2nd half while scoring 44. Despite the win, the Spartans will look to tighten up defensively moving forward.

Analysis

Illinois put up 94 points in their last game, shooting 40% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range. They connected on 11 threes, with an effective field goal percentage of 48%.

The Illini were strong at the free-throw line, hitting 23 of 26 attempts for 88.5%. Kylan Boswell led the way with 22 points, while Kasparas Jakucionis added 21 points and five assists.

Illinois held their opponent to 69 points on 38% shooting from the field. They allowed 21 two-point field goals on 47 attempts, a 44% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Illinois gave up just four threes on 18 attempts, a 22% shooting performance. Their opponent also went 15/18 from the free-throw line, hitting 83% of their shots. Illinois allowed eight offensive rebounds.

Michigan State put up 90 points in their last game, shooting 47.1% from the field. They were strong inside, hitting 57.8% of their two-point attempts, but struggled from beyond the arc, connecting on just 26.1% of their threes. At the free-throw line, they were solid, making 20 of 24 attempts for 83.3%.

The Spartans dished out 24 assists, with Ace Baldwin Jr. leading the way with nine assists to go along with 20 points. D’Marco Dunn and Frankie Fidler each added 18 points, with Dunn hitting four threes at a 57.1% clip. Zach Hicks also knocked down four threes, shooting 57.1% from deep and finishing with 14 points.

Michigan State’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 85 points on 47% shooting from the field. The Spartans allowed their opponent to hit 57% of their two-point attempts, going 26/45 inside the arc.

From three-point range, Michigan State held their opponent to 26% shooting, with just 6 made threes on 23 attempts. However, they sent them to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 20 for 83%. The Spartans also allowed 15 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Illinois has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 94 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Across their last five home contests, Michigan State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1 while averaging 80 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Fighting Illini have an ATS mark of just 2-2-1 in their last five games. Illinois posted a straight-up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
• The Spartans have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

We have a good Big 10 matchup on Sunday, as Illinois comes into East Lansing as the +3.5 point underdog. Illinois bounced back from their loss to USC with a big win over Indiana, but Michigan State is going to be tough to beat at home. I’m taking the Spartans to win and cover.