Houston vs. Texas Pick: Can the Cougars cover on the road?

Houston Cougars (18-2 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (14-6 SU, 6-14 ATS)

When: Monday, January 29th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Moody Center, TX, Austin

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: HOU -5/TX +5

Total: 129.5

Money Line: Houston Cougars -230/+185

Notable Injuries

Cougars

• Terrance Arceneaux (Out) Achilles

Longhorns

Recent Form

With a record of 18-2, the Houston Cougars have been dominant this season, and they are currently riding a four-game win streak. In their last game, they defeated Kansas State by a score of 74-52.

So far, Houston has been perfect at home, going 13-0, and they have an average scoring margin of +31.0 points per game in those contests. On the road, their record is 4-2, and their average scoring margin is +3.7 points per game.

This season, the over/under record in Houston games is 6-13. On average, their games have finished with 126.5 points compared to an average over/under line of 133.3, resulting in an average margin versus the over/under line of -6.9 points. So far, 11 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line of 129.5.

As the favorite this season, Houston has gone 11-8 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Cougars are 6-4. On the road, Houston is just 2-4 ATS this year and their ATS mark over their last 10 road games is 2-7.

As an underdog this season, Texas has gone 2-3, and they are 14-6 overall. At home, the Longhorns are 11-3 this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home.

In their most recent game, Texas lost to BYU by a score of 84-72. So far this season, they have gone 3-2 in their last five games at home.

Today’s over/under line of 129.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Texas’ games this year (146.2), and their over/under record is 11-9. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 6-4.

As the underdog, Texas has a 2-3 record vs. the spread this season. Overall, the Longhorns are just 6-14 ATS this year. At home, Texas has an ATS mark of 4-10 and they have gone 0-3 vs. the spread in their last three games at home.

Analysis

The Cougars’ offense finished with 74 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 74 points per contest. Leading the team in scoring is LJ Cryer, who is averaging 15.2 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Emanuel Sharp also maintains a PPG average of 12.2 heading into game.

Currently, the Cougars’ defense holds the 1st rank in the nation, allowing 51.9 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Houston’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.0% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 27.8% this season.

In their recent matchup, the Texas offense ended with 72 points against BYU. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 44.3% and made 8 threes. For the season, the Texas offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 48%. So far, they have hit 54% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 7.7 made threes per contest.

So far, the Longhorns’ defense is ranked 86th in the country at 67.8 points per contest. In their previous game vs. BYU, the Cougars finished with a field goal percentage of 64% and a total of 84 points vs. Texas.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Cougars offense has averaged 65 points per game while allowing an average of 64. Houston posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• In their last five games at home, the Longhorns have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 71 points per game in these contests.
• The last five games that Texas was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Cougars have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Rich Crew’s ATS Pick

Two solid defensive clubs take to the floor of the Moody Center and while the total was first “go to”, I think the number is a little too low. I’m going to back the Cougars and hope that their 3-pt defense allows them to extend the margin. Take Houston -5.