Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s: Expert ATS Prediction | WCC Tournament Pick

Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-8 SU, 13-19 ATS) vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-4 SU, 14-17 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 11th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Orleans Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: GNZG -3.5/STMRY +3.5

Total: 137.5

Money Line: Gonzaga Bulldogs -162/+133

Notable Injuries

Bulldogs

• Steele Venters (Out) Achilles
• Braeden Smith (Out) Redshirt

Gaels

Recent Form

Gonzaga Bulldogs Recent Game/Games

Gonzaga improved to 24-8 this season with an 85-76 home win over San Francisco on Monday. The Bulldogs were -15 point favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 161, going over the 157.5 O/U line.

After trailing 37-35 at halftime, Gonzaga turned things around in the 2nd half, scoring 50 points while allowing 39.

Saint Mary’s Gaels Recent Game/Games

Saint Mary’s improved to 27-4 on the season with a 74-59 win over Pepperdine on Monday. The Gaels were heavy favorites at -19 but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 133, falling just under the O/U line of 137.

Saint Mary’s led 39-29 at halftime and outscored Pepperdine 35-30 in the second half to secure the win at home.

Analysis

Gonzaga put up 85 points in their last game, shooting 44.4% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 23.5% of their threes, but connected on 78.1% of their free throws, going 25/32 from the line.

Graham Ike and Malik Thomas each scored 27 points, with Ike shooting 69.2% and grabbing 10 rebounds. Thomas hit 5 of 8 threes, while Khalif Battle added 21 points, making 3 of 7 from deep.

Gonzaga’s defense gave up 76 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 44% from the field, hitting 28 of 63 shots. Inside the arc, they connected on 52% of their two-point attempts, going 24/46.

From three-point range, Gonzaga held their opponent to just four made threes on 17 attempts, a 23% shooting performance. The other team also went to the free-throw line 32 times, making 25 of those shots, a 78% success rate. Gonzaga allowed nine offensive rebounds.

Saint Mary’s put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field. Their two-point shooting was a strong 60% (27/45), but they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 2 of 13 attempts (15.4%).

The Gaels also had issues at the free-throw line, making only 58.3% of their attempts (14/24). Moe Odum led the way with 19 points, while Paulius Murauskas added 15 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 83.3% from the field.

Saint Mary’s Gaels gave up 59 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 50% from the field, with 27 of those baskets coming from two-point range on 45 attempts (60%).

From beyond the arc, the Gaels held their opponent to just two made threes on 13 attempts (15%). They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 14 (58%).

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Gonzaga has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 82 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• The Gaels are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
• Through their last three games as the underdog, the Gaels have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Bulldogs have a straight up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s matchup between Gonzaga and St Mary’s pits one of college basketball’s best offenses (Gonzaga) vs a St. Mary’s defense that is the 5th best scoring defense in the NCAA. The Gaels won the first two meetings of the season so far, holding the Bulldogs to just 58 points in game one and 67 points in game two. Even though they have a good track record vs Gonzaga so far this year, it’s tough to beat a team three times in a row, and I see Gonzaga winning this one and covering.