Gonzaga vs. Purdue ATS Pick: Sweet 16 Game Analysis & Predictions

Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-7 SU, 16-15 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (31-4 SU, 18-16-2 ATS)

When: Friday, March 29th, 7:39 PM (ET)

Where: Little Caesars Arena, MI, Detroit

TV: TBS

Point Spread: GNZG +5.5/PUR -5.5

Total: 154.5

Money Line: Gonzaga Bulldogs +184/-230

Notable Injuries

Bulldogs: No reported injuries.

Boilermakers: No reported injuries.

Expert handicapper Rich Crew takes a deep dive into the statistics and lays out his top five reasons why Purdue will cover the spread in their Sweet 16 matchup against Gonzaga on March 29th, 2024.

Purdue’s Key Advantages

Scoring and Efficiency: Both teams are evenly matched in points per game, with Purdue at 83.9 (9th) and Gonzaga at 83.9 (10th). However, Purdue’s offensive system, which leads the nation in assists per game (18.8, 1st), coupled with their top ranking in assists/field goal made (0.654, 2nd), demonstrates their superior ball movement and shooting efficiency. This teamwork and efficiency are crucial against Gonzaga’s defense.

Rebounding: Purdue boasts a strong rebounding presence, ranking 6th in total rebounds per game (40.8) and 3rd in offensive rebound percentage (37.4%). This ability to control the boards, especially on the offensive glass, grants Purdue more second-chance points, a critical factor in close games.

Three-Point Shooting: The Boilermakers lead the nation in three-point percentage (40.9%, 1st), which contrasts sharply with Gonzaga’s defensive vulnerability from beyond the arc, allowing 33.8% (171st). Purdue’s proficiency from deep could stretch Gonzaga’s defense and create scoring opportunities.

Defensive Matchup: Purdue’s defense is well-equipped to handle Gonzaga’s shooting, ranking 36th in opponent effective field goal percentage (47.3%) and 10th in opponent free-throw attempt ratio (0.230). Their ability to defend without fouling is key against a Gonzaga team that thrives on getting to the line.

Last Meeting: Looking at the early season game on a neutral court, Purdue demonstrated a balanced attack with significant contributions from key players like Zach Edey, who posted 25 points and 14 rebounds. Purdue’s ability to distribute scoring and effectively utilize their big man could again be the difference-maker.

Rich Crew’s Point Spread Pick for Purdue vs. Gonzaga

Purdue’s top assists and three-point game, plus rebounding edge, set them up well against Gonzaga. Their defense and previous win over Gonzaga underscore their ability to cover the -5.5 spread. Take Purdue -5.5.