Final Four Picks: Alabama vs. UConn

Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11 SU, 21-15 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (35-3 SU, 25-12-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 6th, 8:49 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Stadium, AZ, Glendale

TV: TBS

Point Spread: ALA +11.5/UCONN -11.5

Total: 160.5

Money Line: Alabama Crimson Tide +495/-730

Notable Injuries

Crimson Tide

• Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Probable) Head
• Davin Cosby Jr. (Out) Foot

Huskies

Recent Form

Alabama enters this game as 11.5-point underdogs, and they have gone 2-7 in their nine games as the underdog this season. They are also 8-8 on the road this year, and their average scoring margin on the road is -0.2 points per game. Over their last 10 games away from home, the Crimson Tide have gone 6-4.

Overall, Alabama has gone 24-11 this season, and they are currently on a four-game winning streak. They are coming off an 89-82 win over Clemson, and they have gone 13-6 in Southeastern Conference play. For the year, they have been favored in 27 of their 35 games, going 23-4 in those matchups.

Alabama’s over/under record this season is 27-9, and the average scoring total in their games is 171.8 points. The average over/under line in their games is 164.1 points, resulting in an average margin of 7.7 points compared to the over/under line. So far, 27 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 160.5 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, with an average scoring total of 159 points.

Alabama has an ATS record of 21-15 this season, including a mark of 7-9 on the road. As the underdog, the Crimson Tide have gone 3-6 vs. the spread in 9 games. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Alabama has an ATS record of 3-7.

Connecticut enters this game as the heavy favorite, as they have been in 37 of their 38 games this season. Their overall record is 35-3, and they have won 11 straight games.

At home, the Huskies are a perfect 25-0 this season and their average scoring margin at home is +23.9. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 10-0.

So far this season, the over/under record for Connecticut games is 17-21. On average, their games have finished with 144.7 points compared to an average over/under line of 144.9, resulting in an average margin of -0.2. Today’s over/under line of 160.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this season, and over their last three games, their games have finished with an average of 132 points.

This season, Connecticut has been solid against the spread with a record of 25-12-1. At home, their ATS mark is 17-8, and over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Huskies are 9-1 vs the spread. Overall, UConn has gone 25-11-1 vs the spread this season as the favorite.

Analysis

Alabama’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 89 points against Clemson. They had an overall field goal percentage of 46.8% and made 15/22 free throws. Leading Alabama in scoring vs. Clemson was Mark Sears with his 23 points. Jarin Stevenson also added 19 points for the Crimson Tide.

At this time, the Crimson Tide’s defense is positioned 348th in the country, permitting 81.1 points per game. Alabama’s three-point defense is currently 190th in the country at 7.4 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 43.8% of their shots vs. Alabama.

The Connecticut offense is coming off a game where they scored 77 points against Illinois. They posted a field goal percentage of 51.7% and connected on 3 threes. Leading Connecticut in scoring vs. Illinois was Donovan Clingan with his 22 points. Cam Spencer also added 11 points for the Huskies.

This season, the Connecticut defense has been impressive, holding the 11th position in the country while permitting an average of 63.3 points per contest. The Connecticut defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 52 points and allowed Illinois to connect on 3 threes.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Alabama has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 96 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• Connecticut has played well in their previous five home games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 80 points per game while allowing 68. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Crimson Tide have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-8.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Huskies have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Huskies’ balanced attack, led by Donovan Clingan and Cam Spencer, alongside their top-tier defense, presents a formidable challenge. UConn’s defense, allowing a mere 63.3 points per game, will look to stifle an Alabama squad that thrives in high-scoring affairs.

Given the contrasting styles and Alabama’s struggles against the spread as the underdog, the smart money is on Connecticut to cover the -11.5 spread. Expect UConn’s defense to be the difference-maker, keeping the Crimson Tide’s offense in check and propelling the Huskies to a convincing victory. My pick is Connecticut to cover.