Expert Pick: Michigan vs. Illinois 2/13/24

Michigan Wolverines (8-16 SU, 6-17 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (17-6 SU, 11-10-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 13th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: Mich +15.5/ILL -15.5

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Big Blue +942/Fighting Illini -1876

Notable Injuries

Wolverines

• Jace Howard (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Ian Burns (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Cooper Smith (Out) Undisclosed

Fighting Illini

• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Recent Form

Michigan has struggled on the road this season, going just 2-6 and losing their last five games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is -7.6 points per game.

Overall, the Wolverines are 8-16 and 3-10 in Big Ten play. They are 3-8 as the underdog this season, and they have lost their last three games on the road.

Michigan’s over/under record for the season is 13-10, and the average over/under line in their games is 149.4. So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line of 153.5. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 135 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 0-3.

Michigan has struggled against the spread this season, going just 6-17. Their ATS mark is even worse on the road, where they are just 2-6 this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Wolverines have gone just 2-8 vs. the spread.

Illinois has been dominant at home this season, going 13-2 with an average scoring margin of +15.5 points per game. They have won three straight games at home and have gone 9-1 in their last 10 at home.

Overall, Illinois is 17-6 on the season, including an 8-4 record in Big Ten play. They have been the favorite in 18 of their games, going 15-3 in those matchups.

Illinois’ over/under record this season is 15-8, and the average scoring total in their games is 152.9 points. Today’s over/under line of 153.5 is slightly higher than their average OU line of 147.2. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 166 points and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 8-2.

As the favorite this season, Illinois has gone 8-9-1 against the spread. Their ATS record at home is 6-8-1 and their last 10 games as the favorite, they have gone 5-5.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Michigan offense put up just 59 points vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Overall, they are now averaging 76 points per game which is 138th in the country. Offensively, the Wolverines hold a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, placing them 169th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 100th in terms of percentage and 79th in three-pointers made.

So far, the Wolverines’ defense is ranked 301st in the country at 78.4 points per contest. Michigan’s three-point defense is currently 148th in the country at 7.3 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 45.6% of their shots vs. Michigan.

In their recent game, the Fighting Illini’s offense concluded with 80 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 82.4 points per contest. Terrence Shannon Jr. led the scoring for the Fighting Illini, contributing 28 points. Additionally, Coleman Hawkins chipped in with 14 points.

On defense, Illinois is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.4 points per game. So far, the Illinois defense is giving up an average of 8.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.7 times per game (464th).

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Wolverines have a straight up record of 0-5 while going 0-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 63 points per game in these contests.
• Across their three previous home games, Illinois has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 86 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Wolverines have a straight up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-8.
• Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Fighting Illini have a strong record of 3-0. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-2.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Illini average a +5.5 scoring margin for the first half overall and a +7.8 at home. Michigan has been outscored by an average of only 3.1 points on the road. In recent matchups the Wolverines had the lead at the half against Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers and Wisconsin. They did get smoked by Nebraska 45-25 in their last game, but that was a must win game for the Cornhuskers and came on the heels of Michigan’s huge upset win over Wisconsin. Take Michigan +9 (First Half).