Duke vs. Louisville Spread Bet 12/8/24

Duke Blue Devils (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 8th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: KFC Yum! Center, KY, Louisville

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: DUKE -9.5/LOU +9.5

Total: 144.5

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -464/+347

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

Cardinals

• Kasean Pryor (Out) Leg
• Aboubacar Traore (Out) Arm
• Koren Johnson (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

Duke improved to 6-2 on the season with an 84-78 win over Auburn on Wednesday. The Blue Devils were -3.5 point favorites going into the game and covered the spread with the victory. The total points for the game reached 162, surpassing the over/under line of 146.5.

Duke led 43-36 at halftime and scored 41 points in the second half while allowing 42 points to Auburn. Despite a closer second half, Duke held on for the win.

Louisville Cardinals Recent Game/Games

Louisville dropped to 5-3 on the season after an 86-63 home loss to Ole Miss on Tuesday. The Cardinals, who were -3.5 favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 149, just under the O/U line of 152.5.

Louisville trailed 40-31 at halftime and couldn’t turn things around in the 2nd half, scoring 32 points while allowing 46.

Analysis

Duke’s offense put up 84 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field and 40.9% from three-point range. Their effective field goal percentage was 58.6%, and they hit 55.6% of their two-point attempts. At the free-throw line, they connected on 63% of their shots, going 17-for-27.

Isaiah Evans was a standout, hitting 6-of-8 threes for a 75% shooting performance and finishing with 18 points in just 16 minutes. Miles Kelly also impressed, making 4-of-5 from beyond the arc and scoring 14 points. Cooper Flagg contributed 22 points and 11 rebounds, despite going 0-for-4 from three-point range.

Despite Duke’s defensive efforts, they gave up 78 points, allowing their opponent to shoot 50% from the field. Inside the arc, Duke’s defense struggled, with the other team hitting 55% of their two-point attempts (20/36).

From three-point range, Duke allowed nine threes on 22 attempts, a 40% shooting performance. The Blue Devils also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 27 times, where they converted 17 shots (63%). Duke gave up 12 offensive rebounds in the game.

Louisville struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 33.3% from the field and 16.7% from three-point range, hitting only 5 of 30 attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 38.6%, and they managed eight assists as a team.

Dre Davis led the way with 20 points on 9 of 12 shooting, including 2 of 3 from beyond the arc. Chucky Hepburn added 19 points and four assists, while Sean Pedulla contributed 16 points and seven assists.

Despite Louisville’s defensive efforts, they allowed 86 points while holding their opponent to 33% shooting from the field. The Cardinals gave up 14 two-point baskets on 27 attempts, a 51% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Louisville’s defense limited their opponent to 5 three-pointers on 30 attempts, just 16% shooting. However, they sent the other team to the free-throw line 30 times, where they made 20, shooting 66%. Louisville also allowed 17 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Blue Devils have a straight-up record of 8-2 while going 6-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 76 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Louisville has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Louisville has an ATS mark of 2-1 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Blue Devils have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Duke comes into Sunday’s matchup vs Louisville favored by -9.5, and there is no doubt they are the more talented squad, but they also rely heavily on young players. Look for Louisville to hang around in this one, and with the spread sitting at -9.5, I like the Cardinals to cover.