Duke vs Illinois Betting Preview: Surging Devils Primed to Cover Against Slumping Illini

Duke Blue Devils (23-3 SU, 16-10 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (17-10 SU, 12-14-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 22nd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: FOX

Point Spread: DUKE -9.5/ILL +9.5

Total: 155.5

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -500/+370

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

• Maliq Brown (Questionable) Shoulder

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt
• Jake Davis (Questionable) Illness
• Morez Johnson Jr. (Out) Wrist

Recent Form

Duke Blue Devils Recent Game/Games

Duke improved to 23-3 on the season with an 80-62 win over Virginia on Monday. The Blue Devils were -14.5 favorites going into the game and covered the spread with the win.

After leading 43-29 at halftime, Duke scored 37 points in the 2nd half while allowing 33. The total points for the game were 142, which went over the 133.5 O/U line.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois dropped to 17-10 on the season after a 95-74 loss to Wisconsin on Tuesday. The Illini, who were +4.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread in this one.

Trailing 47-41 at halftime, Illinois managed just 33 points in the 2nd half while allowing 48. The game’s total points (169) went over the pre-game line of 161.5.

Analysis

Duke’s offense put up 80 points in their latest game, shooting 52.5% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 61%. They connected on 61.1% of their two-point attempts and hit 39.1% from beyond the arc, going 9-for-23 from three-point range. At the free-throw line, they were 9-for-11, shooting 81.8%.

Isaiah Evans, Kon Knueppel, and Cooper Flagg each contributed 17 points, with Evans hitting 5-of-6 threes and shooting 85.7% overall. Flagg added 14 rebounds, while Knueppel hit 3-of-6 from deep. Andrew Rohde and Dai Dai Ames each scored 15 points, and Isaac McKneely added 14, hitting 4-of-7 from three-point range.

Even with a strong defensive effort, Duke couldn’t hold their opponent under 62 points. The Blue Devils limited them to 38% shooting overall, with 20 made field goals on 52 attempts.

From beyond the arc, Duke allowed eight threes on 22 attempts, a 36% clip. They also sent their opponent to the line 17 times, where they converted 14 free throws, shooting 82%.

John Tonje’s 31-point performance, shooting 60% from the field and 3/5 from beyond the arc, was key for Illinois in their last game. Steven Crowl added 20 points, hitting all 3 of his three-point attempts and shooting 70% overall while also contributing seven rebounds and five assists.

The Illini shot 43.3% from the field, with an effective field goal percentage of 51.7%. They made 10 of 30 three-point attempts (33.3%) and were strong from the free-throw line, hitting 12 of 14 (85.7%).

Illinois struggled defensively, giving up 95 points on 52% shooting. Their opponent hit 58% of their two-point attempts, going 24/41.

From beyond the arc, Illinois allowed 10 threes on 24 attempts (41%). They also sent their opponent to the line 22 times, where they converted 17 free throws (77%).

Betting Trends

• The Blue Devils are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Fighting Illini have a straight-up record of 5-5 while going 3-7 vs. the spread. The team averaged 82 points per game in this stretch.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Fighting Illini have gone 4-5-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
• Duke has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Illinois has been dealing with some tough luck of late, as numerous players have been dealing with illness. This couldn’t have been coming at a worse time, as they have been playing a tough schedule and are jockeying for seeding in the Big 10 tournament and, hopefully, the NCAA tournament. Right now, they are on a 2-game losing streak and are +9.5 point underdogs vs Duke. I expect Duke to run away vs this struggling Illinois squad. I’m taking the Blue Devils at -9.5.