Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars: Final Four Betting Preview and Prediction

Duke Blue Devils (45-3 SU, 28-20 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (45-4 SU, 28-20-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 5th, 8:49 PM (ET)

Where: Alamodome, TX, San Antonio

TV: CBS

Point Spread: DUKE -4.5/HOU +4.5

Total: 136

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -253/+202

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

Cougars

• Ramon Walker Jr. (Out) Hand
• Jacob McFarland (Out) Leg

Recent Form

Duke Blue Devils Recent Game/Games

Duke improved to 45-3 this season with a 73-62 win over Louisville on Saturday, March 15th. Playing at home, the Blue Devils were favored by 6 points and covered the spread. The game’s total points of 135 fell short of the 148.5 O/U line.

Duke trailed 38-33 at halftime but turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Louisville 40-24 to secure the win.

Houston Cougars Recent Game/Games

Houston improved to 45-4 on the season after a 72-64 win over Arizona on Saturday, March 15th. The Cougars were favored by 5.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total points of 136 fell just under the O/U line of 138.

After trailing 33-28 at halftime, Houston turned things around by outscoring Arizona 44-31 in the 2nd half.

Analysis

Duke put up 73 points in their last game, shooting 44% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 54%. They hit 10 of 27 from three-point range, shooting 37%, and connected on 79.2% of their free throws, going 19 for 24.

Terrence Edwards Jr. led the way with 29 points and six rebounds, hitting 5 of 12 from beyond the arc. Tyrese Proctor added 19 points, also making six threes, while Kon Knueppel contributed 18 points and eight rebounds despite missing all 5 of his three-point attempts.

Despite Duke’s defensive efforts, they allowed 62 points while the opposing team shot 44% from the field, making 22 of their 50 attempts. From two-point range, the opposition connected on 12 of 23 shots, hitting at a 52% clip.

From beyond the arc, Duke’s defense saw the other team make 10 of 27 three-point attempts, good for 37%. They also sent the opposition to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 19 free throws, shooting 79%. Duke gave up eight offensive rebounds in the game.

In their latest game, the Cougars put up 72 points, shooting 42.6% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the arc. They connected on 91.7% of their free throws, going 11-for-12 at the line.

Milos Uzan led the way with 25 points, hitting 4-of-6 threes and shooting 50% overall. Caleb Love added 19 points, though he struggled from deep, making just 2-of-9 attempts.

Houston’s defense gave up 64 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 42% from the field. They allowed 17 two-point baskets on 38 attempts, a 44% conversion rate.

From beyond the arc, opponents hit 9 of 23 threes, shooting 39%. Houston also sent them to the line 12 times, where they made 11 free throws, a 91% success rate. The Cougars gave up nine offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Blue Devils have a straight-up record of 9-1 while going 8-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 84 points per game in these contests.
• The Cougars are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 5-0 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Cougars have a straight-up record of 2-3. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 3-2.
• Duke has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This should be a fun one to watch tonight as a Duke squad led by Cooper Flagg takes on a Houston team that was the best defensive team in college basketball this year. However, what gets overlooked in this matchup is that Duke was one of the best defensive teams in the NCAA this year as well. I see Houston’s offense struggling tonight, as they often end up taking tough shots late in the shot clock and rely on getting to the free-throw line. I’m taking Duke -4.5.