Denver vs. South Dakota State: Summit League Championship Final Betting Preview

Denver Pioneers (16-16 SU, 12-15-1 ATS) vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits (20-12 SU, 30-13 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 12th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Denny Sanford Premier Center, SD, Sioux Falls

TV: CBSS

Point Spread: DEN +8.5/SDKST -8.5

Total: 163

Money Line: Denver Pioneers +306/-392

Notable Injuries

Pioneers

Jackrabbits

Recent Form

Denver is 16-16 overall and 7-10 in the Summit Conference this season. On the road, the Pioneers are 6-12, and their average scoring margin is -5.4. They have been the underdog in 17 of their 32 games, going 6-11.

In their most recent game, Denver defeated Kansas City by a score of 61-60. Over their last 10 road games, the Pioneers have gone 3-7. So far this season, they have been the underdog in 17 games, going 6-11.

This season, the over/under record for Denver games is 19-8-1. The average scoring total in their games this year is 163.4 points, which is higher than the average over/under line in their games of 155.6. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 129 points, and their OU record during this span is 0-3.

As the underdog, Denver has gone 8-8-1 vs. the spread this season. On the road, the Pioneers have an ATS mark of 7-10-1. Over their last three road games, Denver is 2-1 vs. the spread.

South Dakota State has been on a roll this season, as they have won 20 straight games heading into tonight’s matchup with Denver. The Jackrabbits are 23-5 at home this season, and they have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games at home.

On the year, South Dakota State is 29-8 when they are favored, and they are favored in this one by 8.5 points. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.6, and they are coming off a 59-49 win over St. Thomas (MN).

South Dakota State’s over/under record this season is 16-27, and the average over/under line in their games is 145.9. So far, 38 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line of 163. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 129 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 4-6.

South Dakota State has an impressive ATS record of 30-13 this season. At home, they have gone 21-7 vs. the spread. Over their last three home games, the Jackrabbits are 3-0 ATS and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. As the favorite, South Dakota State is 26-11 vs. the spread this season and 8-2 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Analysis

Denver offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 61 points against Kansas City. In that game, they made 8/29 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 39.3%. The top scorer for the Pioneers was Tommy Bruner with 16 points, while Jaxon Brenchley also added 15 to the scoreboard.

Currently, the Pioneers’ defense holds the 266th rank in the nation, allowing 75.8 points per game. So far, the Denver defense is giving up an average of 8.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.9 times per game (418th).

The South Dakota State offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 59 points versus St. Thomas (MN). During the game, they attempted 25 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 43.8%. Offensively, the Jackrabbits hold a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, placing them 77th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 85th in terms of percentage and 65th in three-pointers made.

Currently, the Jackrabbits’ defense holds the 157th rank in the nation, allowing 71.6 points per game. South Dakota State’s three-point defense is currently 242nd in the country at 8.9 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 40.1% of their shots vs. South Dakota State.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Denver has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 61 points per game.
• South Dakota State has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 78 points per game while allowing 66. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Jackrabbits have a straight up record of 9-1. But their mark vs the spread was just 8-2.

Rich Crew’s Point Spread Pick

Take South Dakota State -8.5