Crimson Tide vs. Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Expert CBB Picks

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 20th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, AL, Birmingham

TV: SECN

Point Spread: ALA -8/ILL +8

Total: 167.5

Money Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -337/+264

Notable Injuries

Crimson Tide

• Chris Youngblood (Out) Ankle
• Houston Mallette (Out) Redshirt
• Naas Cunningham (Out) Redshirt

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Alabama’s season hit a bump with an 87-78 loss to Purdue on Friday. The Crimson Tide, who were -3.5 favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game landed exactly on the O/U line of 165, resulting in a push for bettors.

Alabama trailed 42-40 at halftime and couldn’t turn things around in the second half, scoring 38 points while allowing 45. They’ll need to tighten up defensively as they look to bounce back in their next game.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois picked up a 66-54 win over Oakland on Wednesday, November 13th. The Illini were at home and entered the game as -23.5 favorites, but they didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 120, well below the O/U line of 150.

Illinois led 36-29 at halftime and continued to control the game in the 2nd half, outscoring Oakland 30-25.

Analysis

Alabama put up 78 points in their last game, shooting 44.4% from the field. They connected on 31% of their threes, going 9-for-29, and hit 55.9% of their two-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 50.8%, and they made 13 of 15 free throws, good for 86.7%.

Trey Kaufman-Renn led the way with 26 points and eight rebounds, shooting 52.2% overall. Labaron Philon added 18 points, hitting 3 of 4 from deep, while Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer each contributed 17 points, with Smith dishing out ten assists.

Alabama’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 87 points on 49% shooting from the field. They allowed 31 made baskets on 63 attempts.

From beyond the arc, Alabama’s defense allowed nine threes on 16 attempts, a 56% shooting percentage. They also sent the opposing team to the free-throw line 25 times, where they made 16 shots.

Illinois put up 66 points in their latest game, shooting 41.8% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 47.3%, with a 53.3% success rate on two-point attempts (16/30). From beyond the arc, they struggled, hitting just 28% of their threes (7/25).

At the free-throw line, Illinois connected on 76.5% of their attempts (13/17). They grabbed 12 offensive rebounds and dished out 11 assists. Tomislav Ivisic led the way with 20 points, shooting 64.3% overall (9/14), while Jayson Woodrich added 11 points despite shooting just 26.7% from the field and 11.1% from three (1/9).

Illinois held their opponent to just 54 points, with a defensive effort that saw them allow 41% shooting from the field (23/55). They gave up 53% shooting on two-point attempts, with the other team hitting 16 of 30.

From beyond the arc, Illinois limited their opponent to 28% shooting, as they connected on just 7 of 25 three-point attempts. The opposing team also went 13/17 from the free-throw line, shooting 76%. Illinois allowed 12 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Crimson Tide offense has averaged 79 points per game while allowing an average of 86. Alabama posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• The Fighting Illini are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Fighting Illini have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Crimson Tide have a straight up record of 7-3. But their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.

Rich Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m going right back to the Big Ten and backing the Illini plus the points. The Tide have a problem with their three-point defense that I think can be exploited tonight.