Creighton vs. St. John’s Pick: Upset Potential in Big East Final?

Creighton Bluejays (24-9 SU, 19-11-3 ATS) vs. St. John’s Red Storm (29-4 SU, 20-11-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 15th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: FOX

Point Spread: CREIGH +6.5/STJOHN -6.5

Total: 140.5

Money Line: Creighton Bluejays +237/-298

Notable Injuries

Bluejays

• Pop Isaacs (Out) Hip

Red Storm

• Brady Dunlap (Out) Hand
• Jaiden Glover (Out) Wrist

Recent Form

Creighton improved to 24-9 on the season with a 71-62 win over Connecticut on Friday, March 14th. The Bluejays were +4 point underdogs but not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread. The total points for the game were 133, falling short of the 138.5 O/U line.

Creighton took control early, leading 46-35 at halftime. They managed to hold off the Huskies in the second half, allowing 27 points while scoring 25 of their own.

St. John’s Red Storm Recent Game/Games

St. John’s improved to 29-4 on the season with a 79-63 win over Marquette on Friday, March 14th. Playing at home, the Red Storm were -3.5 favorites and covered the spread. The total points for the game were 142, just under the O/U line of 145.

St. John’s trailed 37-35 at halftime but turned things around in the second half. They scored 44 points while holding Marquette to just 26 points after the break.

Analysis

Jasen Green and Jamiya Neal each put up 19 points in Creighton’s recent game, with Green shooting 80% from the field and Neal connecting on 3 of 5 from beyond the arc. The Bluejays shot 52% overall, with a 60.6% mark on two-pointers and 35.3% from three-point range.

Creighton’s effective field goal percentage was 58%, and they hit 72.2% of their free throws. They finished with 12 assists and 7 offensive rebounds, with Liam McNeeley and Solo Ball each contributing 13 points.

Creighton’s defense gave up 62 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 52% from the field. They allowed 20 two-point baskets on 33 attempts, a 60% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Creighton’s opponents hit 6 of 17 threes, shooting 35%. They also went to the line 18 times, making 13 free throws, a 72% clip. Creighton gave up 7 offensive rebounds.

Zuby Ejiofor’s dominant performance, scoring 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting, led St. John’s to 79 points in their last game. Kam Jones added 24 points, hitting 3 of 12 from deep, while the team shot just 27.8% from three-point range.

Overall, St. John’s connected on 41.8% of their field goals, with an effective field goal percentage of 44.8%. They hit 18 free throws at a 72% rate and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, with 17 assists as a team.

St. John’s held their opponent to 63 points on 41% shooting from the field, as they gave up 28 made baskets on 67 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 23 two-point field goals on 49 attempts, a 46% shooting rate.

From three-point range, St. John’s defense limited their opponent to 5 made threes on 18 attempts, a 27% shooting performance. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 25 times, where they converted 18 for a 72% success rate. St. John’s gave up 11 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• The Bluejays are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Red Storm have a straight up record of 8-2 while going 6-2-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 73 points per game in this stretch.
• The last ten games that Creighton was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 7-2-1 while going 4-6 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Red Storm have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-1-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Everyone was expecting to see a UConn vs St John’s matchup in the Big East final, but Creighton picked up the win and punched their ticket to take on a St John’s squad that wore down Marquette with their athleticism and physicality on Friday. The environment in Madison Square Garden will heavily favor St. John’s, but I see Creighton playing them tough. I’m taking the Bluejays to cover at +6.5.