Creighton vs. Louisville Predictions: Joe’s Best Bet for Tournament Thursday

Creighton Bluejays (24-10 SU, 19-12-3 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (27-7 SU, 20-14 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 20th, 12:15 PM (ET)

Where: Rupp Arena, KY, Lexington

TV: CBS

Point Spread: CREIGH +2.5/LOU -2.5

Total: 145.5

Money Line: Creighton Bluejays +127/-154

Notable Injuries

Bluejays

• Pop Isaacs (Out) Hip
• Fedor Zugic (Probable) Ankle

Cardinals

• Kasean Pryor (Out) Leg
• Koren Johnson (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

Creighton’s season record dropped to 24-10 after an 82-66 road loss to St. John’s on Saturday. The Bluejays, who entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 148, surpassing the pre-game over/under line of 143.5.

Creighton led 28-25 at halftime but struggled defensively in the second half, allowing 57 points while scoring 38 of their own. This defensive lapse was a key factor in the loss.

Louisville Cardinals Recent Game/Games

Louisville’s record dropped to 27-7 after a 73-62 road loss to Duke on Saturday. The Cardinals entered the game as +6 underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 135, falling short of the 148.5 O/U line.

Louisville led 38-33 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring just 24 points while allowing 40.

Analysis

Creighton’s offense struggled from beyond the arc in their last game, hitting just 6 of 26 three-point attempts for a 23.1% shooting percentage. Overall, they shot 43.3% from the field, with an effective field goal percentage of 48.3%. At the free-throw line, they connected on just 8 of 16 attempts, shooting 50%.

RJ Luis Jr. led the way with 29 points and 10 rebounds, hitting all 3 of his three-point attempts and shooting 61.1% from the field. Zuby Ejiofor added 20 points, while Ryan Kalkbrenner contributed 15 points on 7 of 10 shooting. Steven Ashworth struggled, shooting just 3 of 19 from the field and 2 of 10 from three-point range, but he did contribute seven assists.

Creighton’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 82 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed 27 two-point baskets on 51 attempts, a 52% success rate for their opponent.

From beyond the arc, Creighton’s opponent hit 7 of 14 threes, shooting 50%. They also went 7/11 from the free-throw line. Creighton gave up 11 offensive rebounds.

Louisville’s offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 39.1% from the field and 26.9% from three-point range, finishing with 62 points. Their effective field goal percentage was 43.8%, and they hit only 5 of 10 free throws.

Terrence Edwards Jr. led the way with 29 points, hitting 5 of 12 threes, while Tyrese Proctor added 19 points. Kon Knueppel contributed 18 points and eight rebounds, despite missing all 5 of his three-point attempts.

Louisville’s defense gave up 73 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 44% from the field on 22 of 50 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 52% shooting, with 12 made two-pointers.

From three-point range, Louisville’s opponents hit 10 of 27 attempts, shooting 37%. They also sent them to the free-throw line 24 times, where they converted 19 free throws for 79%. Louisville allowed eight offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across the Bluejay’s last ten road games, the team averaged 71 points per game while allowing 70. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 8-2, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Louisville has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 76 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bluejays have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Cardinals have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 10-0.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

On Thursday’s first-round slate of games, this is as about as good of a matchup as we could hope for. Creighton has had some bad luck lately, having to take on St. John’s in the Big East final at Madison Square Garden. Now, they have to face Louisville at Rupp Arena in Lexington. Yet, I think this Creighton squad advances out of the first round and picks up the win. Look for Ryan Kalkbrenner to bounce back from a tough game vs St. John’s and carries the Bluejays to a win. I’m taking Creighton on the money line.