Creighton vs. Auburn Predictions: ATS Pick & Point Spread Analysis

Creighton Bluejays (24-11 SU, 19-13-3 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (28-6 SU, 18-16 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 22nd, 7:10 PM (ET)

Where: Rupp Arena, KY, Lexington

TV: TBS

Point Spread: CREIGH +9/AUBRN -9

Total: 150.5

Money Line: Creighton Bluejays +344/-460

Notable Injuries

Bluejays

• Pop Isaacs (Out) Hip
• Fedor Zugic (Probable) Ankle

Tigers

Recent Form

Creighton’s season record now stands at 24-11 after an 82-66 road loss to St. John’s on Saturday, March 15th. The Bluejays went into the game as +6.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 148, surpassing the pre-game over/under line of 143.5.

Creighton led 28-25 at halftime but struggled defensively in the second half, allowing 57 points while scoring 38.

Auburn Tigers Recent Game

Auburn dropped to 28-6 on the season after a 70-65 home loss to Tennessee on Saturday, March 15th. The Tigers were -5 favorites going into the game but failed to cover the spread. The combined points of 135 fell short of the O/U line of 141.

Auburn led 33-32 at halftime but were outscored 38-32 in the 2nd half, leading to the loss.

Analysis

Creighton’s offense managed 66 points in their last game, shooting 43.3% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 6 of 26 attempts for 23.1%, while their two-point shooting was a solid 58.8% (20/34).

RJ Luis Jr. led the way with 29 points and 10 rebounds, going 3 for three from deep and shooting 61.1% overall. Steven Ashworth had a rough shooting night, hitting only 3 of 19 shots, including 2 of 10 from three-point range.

Creighton’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 82 points on 52% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to hit 27 of 51 two-point attempts, also at a 52% clip.

From beyond the arc, Creighton gave up seven threes on 14 attempts, with their opponent shooting 50% from deep. They also sent them to the line 11 times, where they converted seven free throws.

Auburn’s offense put up 65 points in their last game, shooting 41.8% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc, hitting 6 of 21 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage stood at 47.3%, and they struggled at the free-throw line, converting just 59.1% of their 22 attempts.

Johni Broome led the way with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, while Zakai Zeigler added 20 points despite hitting just 1 of 6 from three. Auburn finished with 13 assists and nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Despite Auburn’s defensive efforts, they allowed 70 points on 41% shooting from the field, with the opposing team hitting 23 of their 55 attempts. Inside the arc, Auburn gave up 17 two-point baskets on 34 attempts, a 50% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, Auburn held their opponent to 28% shooting, with just 6 made threes on 21 attempts. The opposing team also went to the free-throw line 22 times, making 13 of those shots for 59%. Auburn allowed nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Creighton has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 78 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Auburn has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 86 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Bluejays have a straight-up record of 5-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 8-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Tigers have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Auburn posted a straight-up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I think Creighton has a chance to make things real tough for Auburn, the tourney’s number 1 overall seed. The Bluejays are a well-coached team and have a few role players that can swing the game in their favor with their ability to knock down threes. And Ryan Kalkbrenner’s size is a problem for most teams. Auburn  may end up winning this game, but I like Creighton at +9.