Cougars vs. Crimson Tide Spread Pick: MGM Grand Clash

Houston Cougars (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 26th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: TBS

Point Spread: HOU -4/ALA +4

Total: 150

Money Line: Houston Cougars -190/+156

Notable Injuries

Cougars

• Terrance Arceneaux (Questionable) Achilles
• Jacob McFarland (Questionable) Leg

Crimson Tide

• Chris Youngblood (Out) Ankle
• Houston Mallette (Out) Redshirt
• Naas Cunningham (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Houston continued their dominant start to the season with an 80-44 win over Hofstra on Friday, November 22nd. Playing at home, the Cougars entered the game as heavy favorites, with a -28.5 point spread, and they covered it with ease. The total points for the game were 124, falling short of the O/U line of 131.

Houston jumped out to a commanding 48-18 lead by halftime. While they slowed down a bit in the second half, scoring 32 points and allowing 26, the game was never in doubt.

Alabama moved to 4-0 on the season with a 100-87 road win over Illinois on Wednesday. The Crimson Tide, who were -8.5 point favorites, covered the spread in the victory. The game’s total points reached 187, surpassing the O/U line of 168.

Alabama took control early, leading 52-38 at halftime. While they scored 48 points in the 2nd half, they allowed Illinois to score 49, which is something they’ll look to tighten up moving forward.

Analysis

Houston’s offense put up 80 points in their last game, shooting 46.8% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 56.5%, thanks in large part to hitting 50% from three-point range, connecting on 12 of 24 attempts. They struggled a bit inside, shooting just 44.7% on two-point attempts.

The Cougars dished out 20 assists, with Cruz Davis and Joseph Tugler each contributing 4. Tugler was perfect from the field, going 6/6 and hitting both of his threes, finishing with 17 points in just 17 minutes. Emanuel Sharp also had a big game from beyond the arc, going 5/5 from three and scoring 16 points in 20 minutes.

Despite a strong defensive effort, Houston allowed 44 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 46% from the field. They gave up 17 two-point baskets on 38 attempts, a 44% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, the Cougars allowed 12 threes on 24 attempts, with the other team shooting 50%. Houston also sent them to the free-throw line 16 times, where they made ten free throws, shooting 62%. Houston allowed ten offensive rebounds.

Alabama’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 100 points with a 52% field goal percentage. They were especially effective inside, shooting 68.3% on two-pointers, while hitting 32.4% from beyond the arc, making 11 threes. Their effective field goal percentage was 58.7%, and they connected on 84.6% of their free throws.

The Crimson Tide dished out 23 assists, with Labaron Philon leading the way with 9. Grant Nelson was a standout, scoring 23 points with four made threes, while Aden Holloway and Will Riley each added 18 points, shooting 75% from deep.

Alabama’s defense struggled, giving up 87 points on 45% shooting from the field. They allowed 32 made baskets on 71 attempts.

Inside the arc, Alabama gave up 22 two-point baskets on 41 attempts, a 53% shooting percentage. From three-point range, they allowed ten made threes on 30 attempts, a 33% shooting percentage. The opposing team also went 13/24 from the free-throw line, shooting 54%.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 1-2, averaging 78 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Although Alabama has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 83 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Crimson Tide have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Cougars have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Alabama’s recent 87-78 loss to Purdue highlighted their vulnerability to strong three-point shooting, as Purdue connected on 9 of 16 attempts from beyond the arc.
Houston, leading the league with a 48.8% three-point shooting percentage, might seem poised to exploit this weakness. However, in their only matchup against a quality opponent, Houston shot just 30% (7 of 23) from three-point range in a 74-69 loss. This suggests that while Houston’s three-point shooting is formidable, it may not be as effective against stronger competition. Therefore, taking Alabama with the +3.5 points could be a prudent choice.