Colorado State Rams vs. Virginia Cavaliers Total Pick

Colorado State Rams (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (23-10 SU, 17-16-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 19th, 9:10 PM (ET)

Where: UD Arena, OH, Dayton

TV: truT

Point Spread: COLST -2.5/VIR +2.5

Total: 120.5

Money Line: Colorado State Rams -147/+122

Notable Injuries

Rams

Cavaliers

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Colorado State is favored by 2.5 points in this game, and they have been favored in 24 of their 34 games this season. They are 20-4 when favored and 3-7 when they are the underdog.

On the road, the Rams are just 7-9 this season, compared to a 16-2 record at home. They have lost their last two games on the road, and their average scoring margin on the road this season is +0.2.

This season, the over/under record for Colorado State games is 13-20-1. Today’s over/under line of 120.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (146.5). In their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 3-7.

When looking at Colorado State’s ATS record this season, they have gone 17-17. On the road, the Rams have gone 7-9 vs. the spread. In their last 10 games as the favorite, Colorado State has gone 5-5.

Virginia enters this game as the underdog, as they have been in eight of their 33 games this season. They are 2-6 in those games. The Cavaliers are 23-10 overall and 14-9 in ACC games. They have lost two straight games, including a 73-65 loss to North Carolina State in their most recent game.

At home, Virginia is 18-4 this season compared to 5-7 on the road. They have won seven of their last 10 games at home, and they are 2-1 in their last three games at home. For the season, their average scoring margin at home is +11.5 points per game.

Virginia’s over/under record for the season is 17-17, and the average scoring total in their games is 123.6 points. Today’s over/under line of 120.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (126.5). Their last three games have finished with an average of 130 points compared to their season average of 123.6 points per game.

As the underdog, Virginia has struggled against the spread this season with a mark of just 2-6. Their overall ATS record is just a game below .500 at 17-16-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Cavaliers have gone just 2-8 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Colorado State offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 61 points against New Mexico. In that game, they made 6/28 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 34.3%. Leading Colorado State in scoring vs. New Mexico was Joel Scott with his 20 points. Isaiah Stevens also added 13 points for the Rams.

So far, the Rams’ defense is ranked 78th in the country at 68.5 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.1 threes per game vs. Virginia. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 32.3%.

Coming off their recent game, the Virginia offense tallied 65 points in a matchup against North Carolina State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 37.9%, and they made 9 threes. Reece Beekman is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 14.3. Meanwhile, Isaac McKneely also brings a PPG average of 12.5 into the game.

The Cavaliers’ defense is presently ranked 4th nationally, allowing an average of 60.0 points per contest. Against North Carolina State, the Cavaliers’ defense gave up 73 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, North Carolina State only made 6 free throws.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Rams offense has averaged 76 points per game while allowing an average of 75. Colorado State posted an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Across the Cavaliers’ last ten home games, the team averaged 61 points per game while allowing 69. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 5-5 straight-up.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Cavaliers have a straight up record of 0-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Rams struggled vs the spread, going just 1-4. However, they still had a straight-up mark of 4-1.

Crew’s Total Pick

The 120 line may scare some, but with two high level defensive clubs the Under it’s a logical way to play this game. Maybe a 60-57 final? Take the Under 120.5